Daily market overview 30/08/2012

Binary markets traded very quietly during the Asian session today. Yesterday’s report of US GDP didn’t impress the markets by much and the moves were insignificant. EURUSD is currently trading on green territory as it fell from 1.2570 to 1.2524 yesterday. USD is the only one out of the four major currencies that kept moving during the night. After it rallied from 78.47 to 78.78 in the course of several hours, it made a lower high at the night and then broke the low before it at 78.65. Binary US stock index futures are down for the day but not much as Dow is down by 16 points, S&P500 by 3, and Nasdaq100 by 4. Commodity markets remain calm with no significant change during the current session. Binary Gold is up 3 dollars from the opening at 1656, while Binary Crude Oil are exactly at the opening level at 95.15.

Today we have Italian 10-year Bond Auction, which will be a major test for the trust in the Italian government and its financial policy. At 8:30 NY Time the Unemployment Claims in the USA will be announced, which are forecasted to drop mildly below the previous reading at 372K. Today we will episodically see parts of the Jackson Hole symposium, which in addition to the Italian bond auction and the unemployment claims data from the US could provide the news feed needed to bring back volatility to binary markets.

EURUSD

After very sluggish session yesterday the pair moved only 57 pips between  high and low and closed on slightly red territory while losing around 0.3%. Now the market is ranging between its yesterday extremes although it’s showing some bullish momentum we cannot call it start of a new major impulse. Until 1.2575 is eventually broken the bull trend will be halted. Closest support zone is 1.2515/1.2525, followed by 1.2485. Exponential moving averages with 20- and 50-bar periods are flat and indicating lack of momentum.

FTSE100

The UK prime binary stock market index yesterday lost 20 basis points yesterday which was no big surprise. The market has been trending down for quite some time, since in the middle of August its bull trend lost momentum and formed double top formation at 5875. The market is expected to continue down to test its previous recent lows at 5738. Since the market already opened below this level, we expect it to be turned into resistance level. If the market manages to keep its bearish momentum it will reach 5666, where a major support level lays.

Gold

Binary Gold is falling in the past 3 sessions, while moving in a descending channel. Although yesterday it hit the lower line of the channel no significant bullish reaction occurred. If the market doesn’t succeed to stabilize above 1656 it would test 1652 and probably undershoot the channel line. Market mood remains bearish for now and it will stay like that until eventual break above 1662. This could lead the market to 1672, but most likely today’s trading session will stay more rangy, caught between 1662 and 1652. Binary traders should buy call options near the low of the range and buy put options near the high.

Economic events reminder 30/08/2012

1:00 NZD NBNZ Business Confidence

Forecast:                       Previous: 15.1

Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers, builders, retailers, agricultural firms, and service providers. It’s a leading indicator of economic health – businesses react quickly to market conditions, and changes in their sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity such as spending, hiring, and investment.

1:30 AUD Building Approvals m/m

Forecast:-4.7%                 Previous: -2.5%

Change in the number of new building approvals issued. It’s an excellent gauge of future construction activity because obtaining government approval is among the first steps in constructing a new building.

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Daily market overview 29/08/2012

Earlier this morning markets are quiet and waiting of the opening of the European session. Binary EUR/USD is making a corrective structure after strong impulse from Tuesday. At the moment European currency is trading around 1.2560. British pound is also in corrective leg of upside momentum and today we could see new fresh high. Japanese yen is moving in tight range between 78.34 and 78.81 from four days and break of one of these levels could set direction in the currency pair in short term. Forex on USD/CHF are continuing their bearish trend from 0.9970 and break of bottom from 23th August 0.9537 would unlock further negative impulse. Today focus of the traders is directed to the events from US. For 12:30 GMT are scheduled for announce data of GDP for second quarter and for 14:00 GMT data of pending home sales for the previous month. They are leading indicators of economy health and could affect the markets in long term. Forecast for the GDP are 1.7% but for the 1st quarter data were 1.5%. All Binary Indexes moved in tight ranges yesterday without big changes of the prices. German DAX is above 7000, Binary CAC 40 is trading around 3432 and Binary FTSE 100 is continuing to move between 5794 and 5730. On Monday American indexes closed mixed. Dow Jones Industrial Average was down by -21.68 points and closed at 13102. S&P 500 closed just a little bit lower than Monday at 1409. Only Nasdaq Composite index closed in green at 3077 with 0.13% change. In Asian session today Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average rose 0.2%.

EUR/USD

Intraday bias is strong bullish after yesterdays’ fast growth of the price of European currency against the dollar. First target is set at 1.2588 witch is the highest level since two months. Break there could lead the price to new resistance level around 1.2640 first and 1.2700 sentiment zone after that. On downside first support level is at 1.2530 followed by 1.2500. Crucial level continues to be 1.2440. Break of that support would change sentiment from positive to negative. Above 1.2440 the trend from 1.2040 should be intact and the price would go higher.

S&P 500

Broad American index is moving in narrow range above 1400. In long term trend continues to be bullish but in near term the trend is neutral. Price of the index should break above 1417 first and 1424 after that to unlock potentials for buy “call” options and start new positive rally. Intraday support is around 1405 – 1400. On downside crucial level is 1350 and break and daily close below this level could change sentiments in Forex traders to negative.

DAX

German DAX index is moving in range around 7000 sentiment zone. Today market opened negative and now Binary DAX is trading around 6994. Bullish trend is still actual but the price must break and daily close above 7100 to start again the uptrend rally. On down side crucial is 6800 level and break below this level could change scenario to bearish.

Economic events reminder 29/08/2012

2:30 CAD RMPI m/m

Forecast: 2.3%                 Previous: -4.0%

Change in the price of raw materials purchased by manufacturers. It’s a leading indicator of consumer inflation – when manufacturers pay more for goods the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer.

12:30 USD Prelim GDP q/q

Forecast: 1.7%                 Previous: 1.5%

Annualized change in the value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It’s the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy’s health.

14:00 USD Pending Home Sales m/m

Forecast: 1.1%                 Previous: -1.4%

Change in the number of homes under contract to be sold but still awaiting the closing transaction, excluding new construction. It’s a leading indicator of economic health because the sale of a home triggers a wide-reaching ripple effect.

14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories

Forecast:                       Previous: -5.4M

 

Economic events reminder 28/08/2012

7:15 CHF Employment Level

Forecast: 4.04M                 Previous: 4.05M

Number of employed people during the previous quarter. Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.

14:00 USD CB Consumer Confidence

Forecast: 65.8                 Previous: 65.9

Level of a composite index based on surveyed households. Financial confidence is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.

Daily market review 28/08/2012

Todays’ Asian session start with rallies of most major currency pairs. European currency dropped against the dollar with the lowest price from 3 days at 1.2464. In the end of the session Euro is trying to reversed and now is trading around 1.2490. British pound made the same movement as the Euro but cable faster returns its positions. The Aussie is continuing its down trend with new fresh bottom made earlier this morning. German index DAX returns again above 7000 points yesterday and most of Forex traders expect the bullish swing to continue today. French CAC 40 climbs in Monday by 0.86% and closed at 3462.83. British FTSE 100 is in narrow range between 5795 and 5730 levels. Spanish IBEX 35 closed higher yesterday with 88.60 above Fridays’ price. In the beginning of the European session Forex on IBEX 35 are trading around 7398.  American Dow Jones Industrial Average is down by -0.25% and closed at 13124.67, ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s speech at a Fed retreat later this week. Shares of Apple are up by +1.9% and this helps Nasdaq Composite to rise by 3.4 points yesterday. The Forex on S&P 500 are just a little bit down by 69 points. Asian stock are traded lower in Tuesday amid fears of the Asian economy and looking ahead to a meeting of Fed chairman Ben Bernanke and  president of ECB Mario Draghi in the end of the week. Japan Nikkei Stock Average fell 0.3% after opening higher.

EUR/USD

Intraday bias continues neutral for the moment for some consolidations below topped high in previous week at 1.2588. The long term outlook is without change for continuing the bullish trend. Break of the temporary top 1.2588 would unlock new fast growing of the price. First target could be projected around 1.2640 level first and 1.2700 sentiment zone after that. On downside first support level is at 1.2440. Break of the last support would change sentiment from neutral to negative. Above 1.2440 the trend from 1.2040 should be actual. Forex traders could look for buy “call” and “touch up” options around this support zone.

 S&P 500

Forex on S&P 500 dropped down in Monday American session after rise in Friday. This morning the American index is trading above 1400 points. The price must break above 1417 first and 1424 after that to unlock potential of the bulls and start new up movement. Intraday support is around 1405 – 1400. On downside crucial level is 1350 and break and daily close below this level could change sentiments in Forex traders to negative.

DAX

Forex on German DAX index made a clear break and daily close below 7000 sentiment zone last week but we see the price again above this zone yesterday. This could be taken as a continuing of the long term up trend. Intraday resistance is projected at the topped high from Monday at 7050 followed by high from last week at 7106. In long term binary traders could keep their expectation for continuing the bullish trend. Only break and daily close below 6800 level could change scenario to bearish.

Daily Market Review 27/08/2012 US Opening

Today German business confidence fell for a fourth straight month in August as the sovereign debt crisis damaged growth in Europe’s largest economy. The Ifo institute in Munich published its business climate index, based on a survey of 7,000 business executives, and the index number declines to 103.2 in July to 102.3 this month. That’s the lowest reading since March 2010. Economists predicted a decline to 102.7, according to the median of 37 forecasts in a recent survey. Europe‘s largest economy’s growth slowed to 0.3 percent in the second quarter, which is 0.2% less than the first quarter growth. The reason for that is the decreased demand for export, which is crucial for the German economy. Despite that German stocks advanced today as Deutsche Bank AG jumped. Currently binary DAX30 is trading at 7030, forming almost a whole percent advance for the day. Binary CAC40 is not that bullish but it’s in green territory as well, advancing with 0.52 percent to 3450. The binary S&P500 futures are only a dollar higher than they opened and currently trading at 1415. Crude oil and gold didn’t move a lot during today’s European morning session, and probably the commodity market is waiting for the opening of the US binary stock market. Wall Street rose on Friday on news of the European bond-buying program, though a six-week string of gains in the S&P and Dow ended amid expectations for central bank stimulus.

EURUSD

The pair is currently trading mere 20 pips above its open and is facing difficulties at Friday’s resistance at 1.2535. This morning it tested the mid-term support of 1.2490, where it made a second attempt to break the level and failed for a second time, forming a probable double bottom pattern. Nevertheless the market cannot be considered trending in any direction since today’s range is still below 50 pips. Without a confident break above 1.2535 the bulls cannot claim control of the market in daily perspective, and because the price is above its 20 and 50-period exponential moving averages, buying put and touch down options is not advised at all. Medium-term target for trend continuation remains the previous week’s high at 1.2588. If the support at 1.2490 eventually fails, the binary traders should start looking for buying call options opportunities near 1.2440, since the monthly trend remains bullish.

S&P500 Future

The futures of the wide US binary stock market are trading hesitantly today, being just slightly above Friday’s high at1414.5. If the bulls manage to maintain the optimism today the market will soon run at the next resistance at 1419.5. Considering that the market is currently breaking above a downward price channel that looks like a flag we may conclude that if the breakout remains valid, the market may reach levels above 1426 this week. For that matter it should remain above 1410. If the breakout fails, the market will enter range phase with lower band at 1392. Binary investors should keep their call options while the price remains above 1410 and abandon them and reverse their bullish perspective below that level.

Crude Oil

The black gold is falling sharply right before the US open losing more than dollar and a half for and an hour. Currently the market just touched the support at 94.70, which is almost 2 dollar loss from the opening of the binary Oil Futures session. The daily open at 96.60 is now so far away that in cannot be considered intraday resistance anymore because the market is unlikely to test the level again today during the US trading session. The market just touched the lower line of descending channel and slowdown of bearish momentum is expected here. However binary investors should not buy call options until they see some bullish price action unfolding. The last bar on the hourly chart is very big trend bar and usually the market will need at least two hours to give enough clearness of the mood that will prevail and define the direction till the end of the session. Next support is 93.90, while closest resistance is the freshly broken support at 95.30.

Daily market Review 27/08/2012

From the opening of Asian trading session markets are quiet and most of them are moving into choppy ranges. Today Forex traders would take into account for the values of the German ifo Business Climate in European session. The expectations for this economic indicator are 102.7. Values for the previous month were 103.3. Earlier this morning EUR/USD opened just a little bit higher then Fridays’ close and now is trading around 1.2500. Forex on GBP/USD dropped in the end of the previous week from the topped high at 1.5911 and now the price is around 1.5800. Swiss Franc is continuing its’ up trend and Fridays’ pull back is only a corrective pattern of the whole trend. Binary USD/CHF today is trading around 0.9600. Europeans indexes made some corrections in the end of the previous week. The trends in long term outlook are bullish but we could see another declines before continue. German DAX closed in Friday below 7000 points around 6960. Binary CAC 40 is at 3417 level. The U.K. FTSE 100 dropped again in the end of week and closed the week at 5757. In US Friday was good day for most of their indexes and they make up movements. Dow Jones Industrial Average is up by +0.77% and closed at 13157, S&P 500 broad index is up by +0.65% now at 1411, NASDAQ Composite index is up by +0.54% and closed in US 3069. Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average ended with a 0.2% gain, though it was one of the few indexes to notch gains. Binary Gold is continuing its strong bullish trend and earlier this morning the Gold future made new fresh high at $1676. As the same like Gold, Binary Silver raised earlier this morning to new top at 31.2378.

EUR/USD

Intraday bias is neutral for the moment for some consolidations below topped high in previous week at 1.2588. The long term outlook is for continuing the bullish trend. Break of the temporary top 1.2588 would unlock new fast growing of the price. First target could be projected around 1.2640 level first and 1.2700 sentiment zone after that. On downside first support level is at 1.2486 followed by 1.2440. Break of the last support would change sentiment from neutral to negative. Above 1.2440 the trend from 1.2040 should be actual. Forex traders could look for buy “call” and “touch up” options around this support zones.

 S&P 500

Forex on S&P 500 made strong rise in Friday. This could be taken as a finish of the corrective patters. This morning the American index is trading above 1400 points. The price must break above 1417 first and 1424 after that to unlock potential of the bulls and start new up movement. Intraday support is around 1405 – 1400. On downside crucial level is 1350 and break and daily close below this level could change sentiments in Forex traders to negative.

DAX

German’s index made a clear break and daily close below 7000 sentiment zone last week. This could be taken as a signal of a reversal of the trend. On one hour chart there were a head and shoulders formation which is a strong signal for changing the sentiment from positive to negative. Intraday resistance is projected at the yesterday’s support level around 7005. In long term binary traders could keep their expectation for continuing the bullish trend. Only break and daily close below 6800 level could change scenario to bearish.

Economic Events 27/08/2012 – 31/08/2012

Economic Events 27/08/2012

8:00 EUR German Ifo Business Climate

Forecast: 102.7                 Previous: 103.3

Level of a composite index based on surveyed manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, and retailers. It’s a leading indicator of economic health – businesses react quickly to market conditions, and changes in their sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity such as spending, hiring, and investment.

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Weekly Market Review for 20-24 August Trading Week

US markets climbed today (Friday) as Fed Chairman Bernanke said the central bank has the ability to provide additional stimulus to boost the economy. “There is scope for further action by the Federal Reserve to ease financial conditions and strengthen the recovery,” Bernanke said. He has an opportunity to expand on his views in an Aug. 31 speech at the Kansas City Fed’s annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. U.S. stocks rose, paring the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index’s first weekly decline in almost two months on speculation the central bank will act to boost economic growth. The S&P 500 added 0.4 percent to 1,408.03 at 12:16 p.m. in New York, while the benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield fell two basis points, or 0.02 percentage point, to 1.66 percent. Asked if political pressure would limit the Fed’s ability to raise interest rates, Bernanke said the central bank will be “steadfast in its adherence” to promoting stable prices and maximum employment and that he is “confident” the Fed has the “tools to normalize the stance of policy at the appropriate time as the strength of the recovery improves.” Currently Dow and Nasdaq are looking optimistically two hours before market close. Dow is trading at 13140, while Nasdaq is at 3074, but percentagewise both of them are more than half percent up for the day. The optimism that flooded today’s market will be tested on Monday, when Germany will announce its Ifo Business Climate indicator, which is expected to come at a lower reading than the previous one with half a basis point less. On Wednesday we are expecting the US Preliminary GDP, which is forecasted to be 1.7% on annualized rate, and also 0.2% more than the previous one. The data should be kept a close eye on since if it fails to cover the expectations the FED may decide that the time has come for a new stimulus package.  The trust in Italy’s economic health will be tested on Thursday, when 10-year bonds auction will take place. The same day at 8:30 NY time the Unemployment Claims in the US will be published and again they may cause turbulence on binary markets as they are very important barometer for the economic climate. The week will culminate with chairman Bernanke’s speech at 10am NY time. On the other side of the Atlantic stock markets are tending to close more bearishly than their American counterparts. The Footsie100 is losing around 60 points this week, while DAX30 and CAC40 are nearly 70 and 50 basis points lower than they opened on Monday. Binary  market participants fear that European leaders can’t come with a working solution for the debt crisis that has been shaking the Old Continent day and night.

EURUSD

The Euro gained almost 2 percent against the US dollar this week. Today the pait broke below its steep bull trendline that’s been holding the price this trading week. The price stopped falling just as it hit its 20-period exponential moving average on the 4-hour chart. Tuesday’s high at 1.2490 also acted as a support. Generally the market is still trading inside the big upward channel that started with 23 July’s bottom. A major resistance at 1.2440 was broken this week and was effectively turned into support as the price retraced slowly to it after the breakout and headed for new weekly highs again. As for the next week the bull trend in EUR/USD looks intact. Levels that could give careful binary traders good entry points for with-trend trades are 1.2490 and 1.2440. Other support is the dynamic level of the lower channel line that keeps climbing every day as the market is staying within channel’s range. Major resistance for the new trading week will be this week’s high at 1.2588, followed by the mid-June double top formation at 1.2750.

USDJPY

The yen had a strong week against the greenback as the price of the pair tumbled more than 1% for the trading week. The free fall after the FED announced that it’s ready to provide any additional stimulus packages for the economy stopped at just below 78.30, where the lower line of ascending price channel is located. Although the previous week the pair gained significant momentum to the up side, the market topped at 79.65 and there the power of the exalted bulls drained. The pair is trading in a wide range this summer and is currently near its lower levels, and since it’s within its ascending price channel, we may consider that the short term bullish momentum has not been lost. Closest solid support is 78.15, followed by the monthly low at 77.90. Main clear resistance is the previous week extreme high at 79.65, but until we get there we’ll need to wait more than a week, because the sharp decline this week decreased the strength of the  bullish intentions of binary traders for the short term future.

AUDUSD

The Aussie broke below its previous week low at 1.0408 as expected. But the breakout was obviously short-lived, due to the fact that no one wants to open massive position on a breakout at the opposite direction of the long-term trend, which is still bullish. Insightful market technicians paid attention to the major trendline that starts June and is also a lower parallel line in trend channel. The decline during yesterday and today sessions was steep, so buying call options should be done only after price shows signs of strength as breaking above the 20-period EMA

Crude Oil

The black gold as many call it is going to close less than a dollar lower than it opened on Monday this week. The uncertainty for global growth put a halt on the massive rally that’s been making fresh new highs all month long. We are generally looking at a wedge formation that started around 10 August and continued till 23 August when it was decisively broken with a sharp decline that shred of 2 dollars off the value of crude oil for less than two hours. Wedge formations usually form in unsustainable market behaviour when participants in either direction are too enthusiastic and buy/sell with no hesitation but at the top/bottom of the wedge it becomes clear that there is no one that is willing to trade anymore in the direction of the trend and a reverse movement occurs. We expect the oil to take a deep breath at 94.70, where it could provide a nice signal for buying call and touch up options . If the bulls fail there, the next level to provide support is way down at 92.00. Each rumor or economic data confirming global slowdown would push the price of oil to new lows.

SP500

After this week the index tested its March highs at 1426, it failed to break above them and formed a weekly low just below 1400, but the week is tending to close around 1410 after bouncing off a major support at 1396. Very interesting flag formation is underway, but it is very steep and trend continuation patterns usually are not so sharp-angled. It’s likely to see a failed breakout above its upper line and then a reversal in search of new lower levels below 1400. 1392 is a major line in the sand that will provide enough confidence in binary bulls to make at least several bull bars on the 4-hour chart.  What is sure is that trading went from bull trend mode to sideways mode, and in sideways markets 90% of the breakouts fail.