Daily Market Overview 31.10.12

Asian stocks rose, erasing the relative monthly decline as the South Korean industrial production output increased. The value of the New Zealand dollar rose by 0.1% against the US dollar as the domestic home- building approvals rose to a four- year high. Although the Japanese housing starts are less than expected at 15.5% compared to 16.1% forecasted the value of the key market benchmark index NIKKEI 225 surged 1.5%. TOPIX 500 rose by 1.21% clearly indicating the short term prevailing positive trend in the third largest economy in the world. Sony Corp lost 0.42% of its value as investors` opinion for the company` s TV unit is that its dragging profits down. Sony` s TV unit has lost $8.7bln in eight years, hence analysts` view is that there should be some structural changes. The company has cut the TV sets it offers in the US from 40 to 22. Toyota Motor Corp gained 1.66% as the company announced large profit expectations from the 2013 Toyota Avalon that is to be introduced in the US. Copper rose by 0.69% during the Asian trading sessions, Gold is slightly up +0.04%, Silver increased by 0.35% and the value of the crude oil rose by 0.34%.

The European markets are yet to open and there are some key economic indicators that are to be published today. The German Retail Sales are expected to have decreased by -1.2% on yearly basis. The French Consumer Spending is forecasted to have decreased from 0.4% to 0.2%. The Italian unemployment rate is about to be published and the Spanish government is about to announce its Budget balance, which is expected to be positive considering the tight austerity measures. The most important indicators are the Euro Zone Consumer Price Index which is expected to have decreased from 2.65% to 2.5% and the unemployment rate within the zone which is expected to have increased from the previous 11.4% to the estimated 11.5%.

Things in the US are starting to get in order as the exchanges there are preparing to reopen after the devastating hurricane Sandy. Futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 were swinging in different direction and they are currently in consolidation. Key news in mergers and acquisitions on the market is Disney` s willingness to buy Lucasfilm for $4.05bln.

Disclaimer:
The information in this analysis is collected from different sources and should serve for informative purposes only. The author shall not be held responsible for the validity of the presented information. No part of this analysis recommends the purchase or sale of a currency pair or any other financial instrument.

Daily Market Overview 30/10/12

We start the daily market overview with the Asian trading sessions. Most of the Asian stocks marked declines as the second round of stimulus provided by the Bank of Japan disappointed investors. During the bank` s press conference it was announced that their asset purchasing program failed to allay concerns on the economic growth of the third largest economy in the world. Toyota Motor Corp lost 0.5% of its` stock value, Sony Corp slid 1.3% and Honda Motor Co marked a decrease of 2.62%. Bank of Japan announced its` decision to keep the base interest rate at 0.1% which caused the value of the yen to appreciate against the other major currencies. This caused the industrial production companies in the Japanese market to be biggest losers for today` s trading session. NIKKEI 225 slid 1% and so did the TOPIX 500. Key events from tomorrow` s trading sessions are the Australian Buildings Approvals, the Private Sector Credit, South Korean Sales and the Japanese Housing Starts.

Despite the unseen weather issues in the United States, European stocks are trending upwards. Most of the major indices in the Old Continent marked positive swings- the FTSE 100 rose by 0.9 percent, DAX 30 is up by 1.13% and the French benchmark index CAC 40 rose by 0.72%. Allianz is up 0.6%, BMW +1.15%, the second largest oil refining company BP increased its dividend after topping the earnings estimations. Deutsche Bank- the largest lender in Europe increased in value as the company said their profit is unexpectedly up due to an increase in the investment banking revenue. UBS is up by 5% as the company increased its profitability goal. The Spanish GDP decreased less than expected -0.3% contrasting the expected -0.4%. Spanish and Italian bonds were auctioned today with yields slightly higher than the previous. The British retail index- Distributive Trades Survey was published today and the values are much better than expected +30 compared with +7 expected. The German unemployment remains unchanged 6.9% signaling stable fiscal and monetary policies.

Things in the US remain highly influenced by the Hurricane Sandy. Financial markets are closed for the second consecutive day which is an absolute precedent. Futures on the major US indices swung in different directions during the Asian and European trading sessions and they are currently flat. It was announced that all US exchanges are working on a synchronization plan between them and their European counterparts to reopen on 31/10/12.

 

Disclaimer:
The information in this analysis is collected from different sources and should serve for informative purposes only. The author shall not be held responsible for the validity of the presented information. No part of this analysis recommends the purchase or sale of a currency pair or any other financial instrument.

Daily Market Review 30/10/2012

Asian equities were mostly higher on Tuesday but the Japanese stock market reacted negatively after its central bank announced it would increase its asset purchase program. Meanwhile, investor momentum remained curbed by a giant, powerful storm that shut U.S. markets overnight. The FTSE CNBC Asia 100 Index, which measures markets across Asia, was up 0.1 percent. Japanese shares erased earlier gains after the Bank of Japan eased monetary policy by increasing the size of its asset buying programme by 11 trillion yen ($137.8 billion), largely as expected. The Nikkei was lower by 0.7 percent at 8,867.93 after trading 0.4 percent higher on the day before the BOJ announcement. The broader Topix fell 0.7 percent to 735.07. Nomura jumped 2.5 percent after it posted its fourth straight quarterly profit as an upswing in its fixed income trading operations helped it offset weak equity markets and the fallout from an insider trading probe. Additionally, Sharp spiked 5.6 percent after the Kyodo news agency quoted sources as saying that the TV maker had entered into talks with Apple, Google and Microsoft to provide the three U.S. companies with its IGZO displays. Honda Motor fell by 0.5 percent after it cut its full-year net profit forecast by a fifth due to slowing sales in China over a territorial dispute. Hong Kong equities traded lower on Tuesday, with local developers slipping further into the red in the wake of curbs on real estate purchases in the territory announced last Friday. The Hang Seng Index was down by 0.5 percent. On a separate note, India’s central bank cut lenders’ reserve requirements to back a policy revamp by the government aimed at reviving growth, while leaving interest rates unchanged to fight price pressures. Australian shares climbed higher as investors bought into defensive sectors, though the market lacked broad direction with Wall Street closed for at least two days. The S&P/ASX 200 Index was up 0.2%. South Korean stocks traded higher as bargain buying by local institutions boosted large cap stocks. The Korea Composite Stock Price Index closed up by 0.43%. European shares

European shares opened slightly higher, benefiting buyers of binary call options, despite Cyclone Sandy continuing to disrupt and subdue global equity markets. In Europe, Spain’s so-called “bad bank” is set to begin purchasing millions of euros of distressed assets at giant discounts between 32.4 percent and 79.5 percent of the original book value, the Bank of Spain said on Monday. Spain’s GDP shrank for the fifth straight quarter July to September on a quarterly basis according to preliminary data from the National Statistics Institute on Tuesday. Gross domestic product shrank 0.3 percent from a quarter earlier, beating economists’ forecasts and a previous reading of 0.4 percent decline registered in the second quarter. UBS announced plans to cut 10,000 jobs and close its fixed income operations after a trading scandal and a quarterly net loss of 2.2 billion Swiss francs ($2.4 billion). Deutsche Bank’s third-quarter pretax profit rose 20 percent to 1.1 billion euros ($1.42 billion), in-line with analyst expectations as sales and trading at the investment bank jumped by 67 percent on the year. The FTSE is lower by 0.2%. The DAX is unchanged and the CAC 40 is lower by 0.76%.

USDCAD

The Canadian dollar fell below parity with the US dollar for the first time since August as investors’ risk appetite declined, providing buyers of binary put options with good profit opportunities. The currency fell for a fifth day as U.S. equity markets were closed with Hurricane Sandy barreling toward the East Coast. Moody’s Investors Service warned Oct. 26 it may cut the ratings of six Canadian-based lenders. Technically, the USDCAD is trading above its 50 and 200 day moving averages, which will provide support for the pair. The RSI is currently in neutral territory.

Crude Oil

Oil traded near its lowest level in almost four months in New York and headed for the biggest monthly decline since May after refiners reduced operations on the U.S. East Coast because of Hurricane Sandy. Crude for December delivery was at $85.45 a barrel, lower by 9 cents, at 3:19 p.m. Singapore time. The contract closed at $85.54 yesterday, the lowest since July 10. Prices have dropped by 7.3 percent so far in October and 14 percent this year.

DAX

The DAX broke above its 50-day moving average, which seemed to be a major resistance level over the last several trading sessions. Therefor we believe that there might be short-term upside potential for traders of binary call options.

Disclaimer:
The information in this analysis is collected from different sources and should serve for informative purposes only. The author shall not be held responsible for the validity of the presented information. No part of this analysis recommends the purchase or sale of a currency pair or any other financial instrument.

Economic Events 30/10/2012

Today we have the following Economic Events:

 

00:00 AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM)

Forecast:              Previous: -5.3%

The Housing Industry Association (HIA) New Home Sales measures the change in the number of newly constructed homes sold. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD.

Tentative JPY Interest Rate Decision

Forecast: 0.10%              Previous: 0.10%

The Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) policy board members will come to a consensus on where to set the rate. Traders will watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation. A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the JPY, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the JPY.

Tentative JPY BoJ Press Conference

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) press conference looks at the factors that affected the most recent interest rate decision, the overall economic outlook, inflation and offers insights into future monetary policy decisions.

08:00 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks

Mario Draghi (born 3 September 1947) is an Italian banker and economist who has been governor of the Bank of Italy and succeeded Jean Claude Trichet as President of the European Central Bank starting November 2011. As head of the ECB, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the EUR value than any other person. His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend.

08:55 EUR German Unemployment Change

Forecast: 10K              Previous: 9K

German Unemployment Change measures the change in the number of unemployed people during the previous month. A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR, while lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR.

08:55 AUD RBA Assist Gov Lowe Speaks

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Assistant Governor Philip Lowe (April 2009 – February 2012) is to speak. As a key adviser to RBA board members, who decide short term interest rates, Lowe has considerable influence over the value of the Australian dollar. Traders scrutinize his public engagements for clues regarding future monetary policy. His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend.

08:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate

Forecast: 6.9%              Previous: 6.8%

The German unemployment rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the reported month. A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR.

Tentative EUR Italian 10-Year BTP Auction

Forecast:              Previous: 5.24%

The figures displayed in the calendar represent the average yield on the Buoni del Tesoro Poliannuali or BTP auctioned. Italian BTP bonds have maturities of five, ten, fifteen and thirty years. Governments issue treasuries to borrow money to cover the gap between the amount they receive in taxes and the amount they spend to refinance existing debt and/or to raise capital. The yield on the BTP represents the return an investor will receive by holding the treasury for its entire duration. All bidders receive the same rate at the highest accepted bid. Yield fluctuations should be monitored closely as an indicator of the government debt situation. Investors compare the average rate at auction to the rate at previous auctions of the same security.

11:00 GBP CBI Distributive Trades Survey

Forecast: 7              Previous: 6

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Distributive Trades Survey (DTS) measures the health of the retail sector. The reading is compiled from a survey covering 20,000 firms responsible for 40% of employment in retailing. It includes measures of sales activity across the distributive trades. It is a leading indicator of consumer spending. The figure is the difference between the percentage of retailers reporting an increase in sales and those reporting a decrease. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.

14:00 USD CB Consumer Confidence

Forecast: 72.5              Previous: 70.3

Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. It is a leading indicator as it can predict consumer spending, which plays a major role in overall economic activity. Higher readings point to higher consumer optimism. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

19:30 CAD BoC Gov Carney Speaks

Bank of Canada (BOC) Governor Mark Carney (February 2008 – February 2015) is to speak. As head of the BOC’s Governing Council, which controls key short term interest rates, Carney has more influence over the Canadian dollar’s value than any other person. Traders scrutinize his public engagements for clues regarding future monetary policy. His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend.

21:45 NZD Building Consents (MoM)

Forecast: 3.0%              Previous: 1.9%

Building Consents (also known as Building Permits) measures the change in the number of new building consents issued by the government. Building consents are a key indicator of demand in the housing market. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the NZD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the NZD.

23:00 KRW South Korean Industrial Production (MoM)

Forecast: 1.1%              Previous: -0.7%

Industrial Production measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the KRW, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the KRW.

23:00 KRW South Korean Industrial Production (YoY)

Forecast: 1.2%              Previous: 0.3%

Industrial Production measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the KRW, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the KRW.

Daily Market Review 29/10/2012

U.S. equities finished almost unchanged after trading in a wide range on Friday, but all major indices ended the week with a sharp loss on growing worries over the pending elections in the U.S. and over the disappointing earnings results of the U.S. companies. The Dow Jones Industrial Average inched 3.53 points higher, or 0.03%, to finish the session at 13,107.21. Intel was the best performing stock among the blue chips, while Bank of America led the decliners. The S&P 500 slipped 1.03 points, or 0.07%, to close at 1411.94. The NASDAQ eked a gain of 1.83 points, or 0.06%. The CBOE Volatility Index, considered by many as the best indicator of fear in the market, finished below 18. The Dow erased 1.77%, the S&P 500 slipped 1.48%, and the NASDAQ shed 0.59% for the week. DuPont was the biggest decliner on the Dow for the week, while Intel outperformed the rest of the stocks. All key S&P sectors closed into negative territory for the week, pulled into the red by materials and energy. The GDP grew at a faster-than-expected pace in the previous quarter, with the U.S. economy expanding at a 2.0% annual rate. The economy grew at a rate of 1.3% in the second quarter. At the same time the consumer sentiment grew to 82.6 in October, posting its best reading in five years according to University of Michigan. The index’s reading for September was 78.3. The reading for October still came in slightly below the preliminary number of 83.1 and below the market expectations of 83. In the individual stocks news, the pharmaceuticals giant Merck announced results for the third quarter that beat the market and said that it expects full-year revenue to be at least as good as the revenue of 2011. Comcast announced results that were in line with analysts’ projections, while revenue was slightly better than the forecasts. At the same time Apple’s outlook for the holiday season disappointed and iPad sales in the third quarter were also worse off. Amazon.com announced its first negative earnings in over five years. The company said that European problems are having an adverse effect on its business. After the news of the negative results hit the wires at least five brokerage firms cut their respective price targets on the stock. To this day, approximately 54% of S&P 500 companies have released their quarterly results, with 63% of them surprising on the upside. Meanwhile, only 37% of companies have bested revenue projections.

Asian stocks declined on Monday as market participants moved their attention away from the U.S. growth data and focused their attention on the weak corporate results and on the sluggish global growth. The FTSE CNBC Asia 100 Index, which tracks the performance of markets across Asia, slipped 0.2%. Honda Motor dropped 4% after the company lowered its net profit outlook for the year by 20% to 375 billion yen after the automaker’s sales in China were lower in the quarter because the territorial dispute between Japan and China took its toll on the trading between the two countries. At the same time Toyota Motor and Nissan Motor also moved lower after trading higher earlier in the session. Toyota slipped 1.1% and Nissan shed 2%. Mainland Chinese stocks marked a fresh new one-month low, as traders cut their holdings in financial companies, which are scheduled to announce third-quarter results in the days to come. The CSI300 Index of the largest Shanghai and Shenzhen companies finished 0.5% lower, at 2,235.9. This is the benchmark’s fifth consecutive day of losses. The Shanghai Composite Index slid 0.4%. Meanwhile, Hong Kong stocks moved into red territory as developers declined after the central government announced new measures aimed at fighting the soaring property prices. The Hang Seng Index slipped 0.2% to close at 21,511.1, which is the index’s lowest close since October 17th. The China Enterprises Index of the best Chinese companies in Hong Kong closed 0.9% higher, at 10,546.2. Australian equities edged 0.1% higher, propelled into green territory by miners and retailers as market participants decided to shift their holdings into riskier assets after the GDP data for the U.S. economy were released on Friday. The S&P/ASX 200 index traded with a gain of 4.5 points at 4,476.9, paring some of its early advances as investors are preparing for the Chinese PMI data, which is scheduled to be released later this week. The blue-chip index slipped 0.8% on Friday to finish the week with a loss of 2.15%, which is the benchmark’s biggest weekly decline since May. In New Zealand’ the NZX 50 index erased 0.8% to trade at 3,951.3 points. Seoul equities finished almost unchanged, hovering around seven-week lows, as advances of technological companies were offset by declines in automobile companies. The Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) put on 0.09 points to close at 1,891.52, after ending its Friday session at its lowest level since early. LG Display finished 7.6% higher after announcing its best the quarterly result in two years. Kia Motors ended 4% lower, adding to the losses it had posted on Friday, when the quarterly results of the company disappointed investors. In India, the BSE Index and the 50-share NSE index edged 0.1% higher. In Singapore, the Straits Times Index slipped 0.9%, while Malaysia’s KL Composite Index finished the session unchanged.

European equities moved lower in the morning part of the trading session, providing traders of binary put options with plenty of opportunities to make money, as U.S. stock markets will be closed due to hurricane Sandy. The FTSEurofirst 300 Index traded 0.54% lower at 1091.37 points. The U.S. east coast is on high alert as this could be the worst hurricane in history.  The NYSE Euronext, NASDAQ OMX and CME group exchanges said they will remain closed on Monday. So far it is still not clear if the markets will remain closed on Tuesday as Wall Street is preparing plans to move its operations temporarily to other cities. The European insurance companies moved into the red on Monday with companies such as Swiss Re, Munich Re and Hannover Re all lower on expectations of mounting claims after the storm. In Europe, the governments are expected to start working on plans aimed at cutting 50 billion euros from the existing long-term budget of 1 trillion euros. Among individual stocks Telecom Italia and TNT Express are scheduled to release their third-quarter results on Monday.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

As we mentioned before the Dow moved in a wide range on Friday, providing both traders of binary call options and traders of binary put options with plenty of opportunities for profit. The blue-chip index edged slightly higher to close at 13,107.21 after touching lows of 13,039.38 earlier in the session. Today the U.S. markets will remain closed due to hurricane Sandy, which is expected to hit the U.S. east coast. Technically speaking, support in the index is provided by the key 13,000 level, while resistance stands at the 13,200 level. Oscillators are all trading around the lower bands of their respective ranges with the stochastic and the relative strength index already in oversold territory. The MACD is below the key 0 level and is issuing buy signals, which are yet to be confirmed by other technical indicators.

Gold

Gold lost ground in the early hours of the Friday session, touching lows of 1700.49 before bouncing back to finish slightly below its 25-period moving average at 1710.14. Today the precious metal is trading in a tight range after briefly advancing to its 50-period moving average earlier on. Currently the bullion is changing hands at 1712.20 but the volatility still remains rather subdued as the U.S. markets are closed for today. Technically speaking support is provided by the psychologically significant 1700 level, while resistance stands at the 50-period moving average around 1720. Oscillators are trending higher with the relative strength index currently standing at 49 and the stochastic is at 60. The MACD is approaching the key 0 level, but it still has some room to go.

USDJPY

On Friday traders of binary put options on the currency pair were the big gainers as the USDJPY slipped from highs of 80.21 to lows of 79.48 before finishing at 79.59. Today the yen is ranging along the 50-period moving average after several failed attempts at breaking below it. The dollar is currently changing hands at 79.63 yens after touching lows of 79.49 earlier on. Technically speaking support in the currency pair is provided by the 50-period moving average, while resistance stands at the 25-period moving average at 79.84. Oscillators are trending lower with the relative strength index at 44 and the stochastic approaching oversold territory, standing at 19. The MACD is trending lower and is now slightly above the key 0 level.

Disclaimer:
The information in this analysis is collected from different sources and should serve for informative purposes only. The author shall not be held responsible for the validity of the presented information. No part of this analysis recommends the purchase or sale of a currency pair or any other financial instrument.

Daily market review 26/10/2012

Markets are moving slowly on Friday and market participants are going to close their profits from the week. The Spanish government reported earlier today the percentage of its citizens that were unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous quarter. The percentage was lower than expected but higher than the previous quarter, with a total unemployment figure of 25%. The United States will report at 12:30 GMT Advanced GDP for the last quarter which is expected to be better than the previous quarter. Economists predict the figure to grow from 1.3% to 1.9%.

Asian shares declined today whilst the yen steadied as investors shunned risk of concerns over corporate earnings, with the region’s exporters struggling against shrinking global demand. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell by 1.35% or 122.14 in last session and closed at 8933.06. TOPIX 500 finished this week lower as the index lost 8.5 points or 1.45% today. Japanese shares fell from a four-week high over concerns that Chinese funds may face heavy redemption after local media reports of poor quarterly earnings, and after disappointing corporate results. Toyota erased 55 points, or 1.75% and closed at 3080 while shares of Honda made a loss of 2.86%, or 74 and closed at 2516. Konami is also in the red today and closed at 1838 with 16 points, or 0.86% loss.

European stocks were lower today as earnings in the US weighed on investor sentiment and traders turned cautious ahead of economic data. Most investors are looking to the third quarter of gross domestic product figures from the US for expectations that GDP will grow. Others are looking to Greece and new problems with the European country. Officials said yesterday that Greece would need another 30 billion euros to make up for its deep recession and delay in hitting deficit targets. Most tradable European indexes opened lower and further declines are expected. The German DAX is trading around 7170 while the French CAC 40 opened today below 3400, and at the moment Forex on the CAC 40 are available at around 3375. The British FTSE 100 is losing half a percent from the opening of the market in the island. IBEX 35 today is in the group of losers and the Spanish index is trading at around 7680.

The European currency is losing its position against the dollar today as the currency has been declining all week. Currently Forex on EUR/USD are available for trading at around 1.2935 and new decline is expected as fears over Greece’s problems are weighing on investors. The British pound could close the week on a hogh after better than expected data about Prelim GDP for the last quarter was released yesterday. Gross Domestic Product for Great Britain hit 1.0% but was expected to hit 0.6%. The Canadian dollar has continued to be in range all week. The Australian dollar is down by 0.18%, while the New Zealand dollar has gained the same percentage. The commodity market is without any noticeable change as the most tradable assets are in decline for the third week running. Gold is trying to break below $1700 an ounce but for now unsuccessfully. Silver hit a new fresh low today but investors have returned the losses very fast. Crude oil is in a strong bearish trend and new decline is waiting.

EUR/USD

The euro is trading lower today after yesterday reversing again on downside. The currency pair is moving below a psychological 1.30 and the picture shows it will close the week below this level. The price is near to first intraday support at 1.2919 and a successful break there would lead the price to a new intraday support of 1.2890. Sentiment in the short term is negative, for the new test support zone is at 1.2802. This level is crucial for a whole positive trend from 1.2040 and a break below it could change the outlook in the medium term from neutral to negative. Until this level holds, the trend will continue to be bullish in the medium term. For now, some corrective movement could be seen before a new attack on the highs. To continue the general up trend, prices must make a clear break and close every day above 1.3170. If we see a break way towards 1.3500 it would be clear and a new wave on the upside is expected.

 S&P 500

Forex on S&P 500 are trading lower on Friday after some ranging trading around bottom. Today trading is situated below a sentiment level of 1400 for a new decline towards 1390. This last level is crucial for medium term upside momentum and a break below it would change the positive trend to negative. Until this level holds, new bullish movement is awaiting. In the case of a break below it next support on downside could be projected at around 1362. On the upside, first intraday resistance is at around 1415 followed by 1443. For returning the upside momentum price of the index needs break above 1459 first and the successful attack of the highest level this year 1467.

Crude oil

The price of crude oil is continuing to fall with new low levels every day. Today Forex on crude are trading at around 85.35 near to the bottom from yesterday at 84.95. A break of the last could trigger a new wave downward with the first target around 83.50. In case of a break below it next support could be projected at around 81.05. On the upside, first intraday resistance is at 86.70 followed by 88.58. Only break above 94.50 would change the outlook from negative to positive. This level is crucial for the whole bearish movement from 100.70. Currently binary “put” options are available at around 86.15

 

Disclaimer:

The information in the above analysis is collected from different sources and should serve for informative purposes only. The author shall not be held responsible for the validity of the presented information. No part of this analysis recommends the purchase or sale of a currency pair or any other financial instrument.

Daily Market Review 25/10/2012

The US Federal Reserve announced no new measures at the end of a two-day meeting Yesterday. The central bank said the economy is still expanding moderately but that growth has been slow and unemployment remains elevated.

On his previous Fed meeting in September, he announced a new quantitative easing program where he would buy $40 billion in mortgage securities each month until the economy improves.

FaceBook dominated the news yesterday with shares spiking at 19.1% after reporting earnings of $0.12 on $1.26 billion in revenue. Investors welcomed the results as both numbers came in ahead of the market estimates. The company also pointed to improved results from its mobile advertising.

At the close of the US session, the Dow Jones industrial average shed 0.19 percent, to close at 13,077.34. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped 0.31 percent, to 1,408.75. The Nasdaq Composite Index was down 0.29 percent, ending at 2,981.70.

Today, Asian stock markets were mixed despite strong data from Australia and China, as concerns over disappointing corporate earnings results from the global companies continuing to show on appetite for equities.

A Less-than-encouraging euro-zone PMI release today kept the euro under moderate pressure. Both German services and manufacturing PMI fell short of estimates and Euro-zone Composite fell deeper into contraction territory.

 Spain’s economic outlook also continues to hang in the balance. According to its central bank estimates, growth contracted by 0.4 percent in the third-quarter from the previous quarter.

Gold

futures bounced off the lowest level in seven weeks during European morning trade on Thursday, after the Federal Reserve reiterated its policy stance amid concerns over the U.S. economy yesterday.

The Federal Reserve announced no new measures at the end of a two-day meeting on Wednesday but he did stand firm regarding his previous decision to launch a new round of quantitative easing.

In its rate statement, the central bank said the economy is improving moderately, but that growth has been slow and unemployment remains elevated.

Daily Market Events 25/10/2012

08:30 GBP GDP (QoQ)

Forecast:0.6%                 Previous: -0.4%

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.

11:00 BRL Brazilian Unemployment Rate

Forecast:5.3%                 Previous: 5.3%

The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment.A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the BRL, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the BRL.

12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims

Forecast:371K                 Previous: 388K

Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.

12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims

Forecast:3260K                 Previous: 3252K

Continuing Jobless Claims measures the number of unemployed individuals who qualify for benefits under unemployment insurance.A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.

12:30 US Durable Goods Orders (MoM)

Forecast:6.9%                 Previous: -13.2%

Durable Goods Orders measures the change in the total value of new orders for long lasting manufactured goods, including transportation items.A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

12:30 US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM)

Forecast:0.8%                 Previous: -1.6%

Core Durable Goods Orders measures the change in the total value of new orders for long lasting manufactured goods, excluding transportation items. Because aircraft orders are very volatile, the core number gives a better gauge of ordering trends. A higher reading indicates increased manufacturing activity.A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

14:00 US Pending Home Sales (MoM)

Forecast: 2.4%                 Previous: -2.6%

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) Pending Home Sales Report measures the change in the number of homes under contract to be sold but still awaiting the closing transaction, excluding new construction.A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

21:45 NZD Trade Balance

Forecast: -825M                 Previous: -789M

The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the NZD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the NZD.

23:00 KRW South Korean GDP (QoQ)

Forecast: 0.2%                 Previous: 0.3%

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the KRW, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the KRW.

23:00 KRW South Korean GDP (YoY)

Forecast: 1.7%                 Previous: 2.3%

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the KRW, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the KRW.

23:30 JPY Tokyo Core CPI (YoY)

Forecast: -0.5%                 Previous: -0.4%

The Tokyo Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers in Tokyo, excluding fresh food.A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the JPY, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the JPY.

 

Daily market review 24/10/2012

Markets are very aggressive today as most of the underlying assets are continuing their directions from yesterday. The economic calendar is providing a number of important events today and market participants may be careful for them. European Central Bank’s President Mario Draghi will speak today at 14:00 GMT during the press conference at the Deutsche Bundestag in Berlin. At the same time the United States will announce data for New Home Sales which is expected to be more positive than last month. At 15:15 GMT Bank of Canada will start its usual press conference to discuss the monetary policy of the bank, 45 minutes after the release of the Monetary Report. Also today Forex traders should keep in mind that the United States will announce a change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in its inventory by commercial firms during the past week. And of course the most important news today from the US is regarding the Federal Reserves decision over the official rates. Predictions are that banks will keep the percentage at 0.25%. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will also announce its position about the official rate of the bank today. This is scheduled to be announced at 20:00 GMT.

Asian shares will decline on Wednesday as most investors are awaiting the outcome of the Federal Reserve meeting. For now the Fed will hold back on further stimulus measures in order to see how the third round of quantitative easing will affect the markets. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index closed down at 8954 with a loss of 59.95 points or 0.67%. Toyota and Honda also closed last session in the red. Shares of Toyota Motor lost 50 points or 1.59% and Honda declined more than 2 percent to close at 2555 with a 57 point loss. Konami is also in the group of the losers on Wednesday as shares of the company slumped 2.22% and closed at 1847. The Konami Index also is down by 0.67% at 1913.

European shares started today’s session with sharp decline after the release of worse than expected Manufacturing PMI for the Euro zone and for Germany. Manufacturing PMI for the Euro zone was expected at 46.6 but data showed 45.3. German Flash Manufacturing fell from 47.4 from September to 45.7 for October. The German DAX Index opened lower and spiked to 7119 but market participants voted positive and reversed it above 7200. Forex on thhe DAX index are available around this level. French CAC 40 index also opened down as French Manufacturing did worse than expected. Economists expected the value to stay at 43.9 but data showed 43.5. The British FTSE 100 is reversing some loses from the begging of the week. Yesterday Forex on the FTSE 100 fell to 5753 but today they are trying to return to above 5800. On Tuesday the Bank of England’s Governor said the economy will not recover until banks own up to their bad debts and are recapitalized again. Spanish IBEX 35 is in a corrective pattern of down trend after a new wave of protests in the country yesterday. Currently the index is moving around 7770 after new fresh bottom at 7640 made earlier this morning.

Currencies are moving a lot today as concerns over the global economy and bad news from various countries affect trading. The Euro returned to below 1.30 against the dollar after worse than expected Manufacturing PMI’s in all European countries. The British pound is green today and currently is trying to break above 1.60. The Yen is moving in range against the dollar from yesterday around its highest level this week and a new attack of sentiment 80.00 could be seen very soon. A Press conference at the Bank of Canada later today could set the direction of the currency pair. The Aussie dollar is moving higher today and gaining around 60 pips. The New Zealand dollar is retracing its downward move from yesterday but the movement is corrective in its nature.

Forex on commodities are moving down like yesterday and providing good opportunities to make money with “put” options. Gold is near to $1700 an ounce although a break below this level could be seen. Silver is moving down today but generally the trend is strong and bearish. Crude oil broke below 88.04 yesterday and new downward ticks are expected.

EUR/USD

The Euro dropped below a psychological 1.30 yesterday and lost 80 pips against the dollar on Tuesday. Currently it is in a corrective pattern from the decline of yesterday and a new wave on the downside is expected soon. On the upside, first intraday resistance is around 1.3020 followed by 1.3075. To reverse this bearish momentum, the price of the Euro should break above the highest level of last weeks 1.3138 first and should close above 1.3170. On the down side, first support for today could be projected at 1.2950. Below it the price of the euro could fall to 1.2890. This view is for short term and the medium term outlook continues to be unchanged. The whole positive trend from 1.2040 is in action and the next upward move is expected when 1.2802 holds. In case of a break and daily close below this level, sentiment could change from bullish to bearish.

 S&P 500

Broad American Index felt on Tuesday and made unsuccessful test of zone around 1400. The bias of the index is bearish and a new decline is expected. On the upside, first intraday resistance is around 1416. Next projection could be around 1432. Only a break above 1457 could return this bullish outlook. On the downside, first support for the day could be at the lowest level of yesterday 1401 and a break below this could trigger a new wave for the 1390 first. The last level is crucial for the general positive trend. A break and weekly close below 1390 would change the sentiments of investors.

 

Crude oil

Crude oil hit its lowest price in three months as the price of the black gold broke below the previous low of yesterday. The new low is 85.72 after a slump from 89.20 on Tuesday. General bearish trend from 100.70 now is starting again for new lower levels. The first of them could be set at 83.50. In case of a break below it, the next support could be projected at around 81.05. On the upside, first intraday resistance is at 88.02 followed by 90.22. Only a break above 94.50 will change the outlook from negative to positive. This level is crucial for whole bearish movement from 100.70. Currently binary “put” options are available at around 86.70.

Disclaimer:

The information in the above analysis is collected from different sources and should serve for informative purposes only. The author shall not be held responsible for the validity of the presented information. No part of this analysis recommends the purchase or sale of a currency pair or any other financial instrument.

Daily Market Events 23.10.2012

06:45 EUR French Business Survey

Forecast: 90              Previous: 90

The Business Survey measures industrial activity in France, the world’s fourth largest economy. The data is compiled from a survey of around 4,000 French business leaders from a broad range of sectors.A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.

08:30 GBP BBA Mortgage Approvals

Forecast: 30.9K              Previous: 30.5K

The British Bankers’ Association (BBA) Mortgage Approvals measures the number of new mortgages approved by BBA-backed banks during the previous month. It includes more than half of the total U.K. mortgage market. It provides information about the buyers in the housing market in the U.K.A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.

12:30 CAD Core Retail Sales (MoM)

Forecast: 0.2%              Previous: 0.4%

Core Retail Sales measures the change in the total value of sales at the retail level in Canada, excluding automobiles. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and is also considered a pace indicator for the Canadian economy. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CAD. 

13:00 CAD Interest Rate Decision

Forecast: 1.00%              Previous: 1.00%

Bank of Canada (BOC) governing council members come to a consensus on where to set the rate.Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation. A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the CAD.

14:00 EUR Consumer Confidence

Forecast: -26.0              Previous: -25.9

Consumer Confidence measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. It is a leading indicator as it can predict consumer spending, which plays a major role in overall economic activity. The reading is compiled from a survey of about 2,300 consumers in the euro zone which asks respondents to evaluate future economic prospects. Higher readings point to higher consumer optimism.A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.

14:00 US Richmond Manufacturing Index

Forecast: 4              Previous: 4

The Richmond Manufacturing Index rates the relative level of business conditions including shipments, new orders, and employment. A level above zero on the index indicates improving conditions; below indicates worsening conditions. The data is compiled from a survey of about 100 manufacturers in the Richmond area.A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

17:00 GBP BoE Gov King Speaks

Bank of England (BOE) Governor Mervyn King (July 2003 – June 2013) is to speak. As head of the BOE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) which controls short term interest rates, King has more influence over sterling’s value than any other person. Traders scrutinize his public engagements for clues regarding future monetary policy.His comments may spark a short-term positive or negative trend.