Economic Events Calendar 31/12/2012 – 04/01/2013

Monday 31.12.2012

01:45 CNY Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI

Forecast: 50.90                 Previous: 50.90

Flash figures are released approximately 6 business days prior to the end of the month. Final figures overwrite the flash figures upon release and are in turn overwritten as the next Flash is available. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a composite indicator designed to provide an overall view of activity in the manufacturing sector and acts as an leading indicator for the whole economy.When PMI is below 50.0 this indicates that the manufacturing economy is declining and a value above 50.0 indicates an expansion of the manufacturing economy.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CNY , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CNY.

 

Tuesday 01.01.2013

01:00 CNY Chinese Manufacturing PMI

Forecast: 51.00                 Previous: 50.60

China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) provides an early indication each month of economic activities in the Chinese manufacturing sector.It is compiled by China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing (CFLP) and China Logistics Information Centre (CLIC), based on data collected by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).Li & Fung Research Centre is responsible for drafting and disseminating the English PMI report. Every month questionnaires are sent to over 700 manufacturing enterprises all over China. The data presented here is compiled from the enterprises responses about their purchasing activities and supply situations. The PMI should be compared to other economic data sources when used in decision-making. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CNY , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CNY.

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Forex Weekly Setup 31/12/2012 – 04/01/2013

New week, starting December 31st, has only 11 major events due to the holidays. Pay attention to the Swiss KOF Economic Barometer on Thuesday.

Let’s review the events. All times are GMT.

  1. U.K. Housing Equity Withdrawal: Published on Monday at 09:30 GMT. The market expects a score of -9.1B. If the outcome is -8.8B or more, CALL GBP/USD. If the result is -10.2B or less, PUT option on GBP/USD.
  2. Italian Manufacturing PMI: Wednesday, 08:45. Exp. 45.4. 45.7 or more, CALL EUR/USD. 44.3 or less, PUT EUR/USD.
  3. U.K. Manufacturing PMI: Wednesday, 09:30. Exp. 49.2. 49.5 or more, CALL GBP/USD. 48.7 or less, PUT GBP/USD.
  4. U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI: Wednesday, 15:00. Exp. 50.2. 50.6 or more, CALL USD/JPY. 49.2 or less, PUT USD/JPY.
  5. Swiss KOF Economic Barometer: Thursday, 08:00. Exp. 1.39. 1.56 or more, PUT USD/CHF. 1.32 or less, CALL USD/CHF.
  6. European M3 Money Supply: Thursday, 09:00. Exp. 3.8%. 4.0% or higher, CALL EUR/USD. 3.6% or lower, PUT EUR/USD.
  7. U.K. Construction PMI: Thursday, 09:30. Exp. 49.6. 49.9 or more, CALL GBP/USD. 48.9 or less, PUT GBP/USD.
  8. U.S. Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 13:30. Exp. 356K. 361K or more, PUT USD/JPY. 348K or less, CALL USD/JPY.
  9. U.K. Services PMI: Friday, 09:30. Exp. 50.4. 50.7 or more, CALL GBP/USD. 49.8 or less, PUT GBP/USD.
  10. European CPI Flash Estimate: Friday, 10:00. Exp. 2.1%. 2.4% or higher, CALL EUR/USD. 1.9% or lower, PUT EUR/USD.
  11. U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Friday, 15:00. Exp. 54.3. 54.9 or more, CALL USD/JPY. 54.0 or less, PUT USD/JPY.

These expected market reactions and setups are general market commentary. This is by no means any type of investment advice.

Quick explanations:

CALL options – if the price closes at a higher level than the price you purchased at expiry time, you make 75%. If it closes below, you’re left with 10%.
PUT options – if the price closes under the price you purchased at expiry time, you make 75%. If it closes above, you’re left with 10%.

The data for these news events has been analyzed given previous releases and reactions, current market conditions and more. Significant surprises to market consensus, as given by surveys of economists, normally trigger sharp market reactions that proceed for a long period of time. When some events collide with each other, they can offset each other. So, these events aren’t in the list.

Source: http://www.bocrunch.com/category/weekly-binary-options-setups/

Weekly Market Review 31/12/2012

Last week the situation with a fiscal cliff wasn’t resolved. As usual they’ve waited till the very last moment in order to keep traders on their toes before the New Year. Perhaps the agreement will be signed just by midnight, when all markets are closed. On Tuesday because of Christmas financial markets didn’t work. On Wednesday in a lot of countries the holiday continued and financial markets didn’t operate as wellk. So there’s no surprise that the trading activity was very low. Market remains concerned and cautious ahead of the US fiscal cliff deadline and the end of the year. Dow Jones (12938.11, -1.21%) fell as expected towards support at 12900.  A further dip to another supporting level of 12750 is quite possible. Failure to reach a deal on the “Cliff” is bad for the US and the global markets. So the consequences of it won’t be long to manifest.  Asia-Pacific is trading mixed. Australia (4674.10, -0.24%) and Hang Seng (22638, -0.13%) are down. Nikkei (10395, +0.70%) is closed today because of the New Year Eve. In general it remains strong with Support in 10300-200 area. Oil (90.60, -0.22%) is experiencing resistance near its upper channel, but is expected to rise to 94.00 soon. Support is near 86-87. Gold (1661.40, +0.33%) continues to trade above important supports (1650-25). In order to avoid further fall it has to appreciate strongly. Long term outlook is bullish. Silver (30.24, +0.90%) has bounced back, but resistance on its way up is significant.  Dip to 29.00 can still occur.

CURRENCIES

EURUSD

The Euro (1.3207) keeps trading sideways in the range of 1.3150-3300. The bias in the current situation is bearish. The break below 1.3150 might take it down to 1.3050-1.3000. After reaching the “bottom” a bounce can begin towards 1.3500-3600.

USDJPY

Dollar-Yen (85.99) remains strong. But corrective fall to 84-83 is quite possible. It is a probable scenario in case of testing 87 on the upside. The breaching of the aforementioned level may give the pair some more strength to appreciate.

GBPUSD

The Pound (1.6152) is not going back up above 1.6200. Thus it might fall to 1.6050-6000. Nevertheless the overall picture is bullish and it can rise to 1.6500-6600 after bouncing from 1.6000 on the downside. It is important for a Pound to withhold this level in order to reverse its motion back upwards.

MARKET DATA

12:30am     AUD          Private Sector Credit m/m

1:45am       CNY           HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI

9:30am      GBP           Housing Equity Withdrawal q/q

Daily Market Review – US Opening 28/12/2012

Forex traders should try to benefit from the increase in Pending Home Sales in the United States, which jumped to 1.7% increase compared to the previous month versus forecast for decline. Futures on S&P index climbed 5 points after the data was published, reaching as high as 1410.75, erasing most of the losses for the day. NASDAQ Composite is still trading below yesterday close at the current 2980 as it opened with a down gap. Dow Jones is also trading below yesterday close at 13095. On Thursday the market rallied in the last hour of the session and recovered from the morning loss to 12968. Apple Inc.’s shares rallied yesterday even above the morning high and closed at $515. Today they are not moving much as they lose half percent at the current 512.75.The bears pushed the market several times to $510 per share, but their attempts to break below it failed. Forex traders should buy call options as the stock is more likely to reach yesterday high at 516.80 and even higher. Facebook is currently trading at 25.60, a whole one and a half percent below yesterday close. Amazon is still trading below its historic high above $250. The day opened at 246.25 and didn’t move quite from there, remaining almost unchanged for the day at 0.7% loss compared to yesterday. Citigroup’s shares are heading for erasing the daily loss which currently is only quarter percent at the last trade at 39.15. Morgan Stanley, another big bank, lost third percent and started ranging between 18.65 and 18.70, making it suitable for Forex traders who prefer ranging markets, where buying call options near the bottom and buying put options near the top of the range is the winning strategy.

Forex on currencies offered great opportunities as well. EUR/USD plummeted in the early European trading, breaking the Asia session tight range to the downside. The daily low is at 1.3166, while the current price is half percent higher. The swings today were very suitable for traders who like trends and both bears and bulls were able to profit. The Euro is expected to continue its recovery. The British Pound gained 0.3% as bulls totally dominated the trading session. In the morning bears pushed the price below 1.61, dropping the bid to 1.6078. Later in the day, the Asia session high at 1.6125 was broken easily and the pound rallied in two nice bull legs versus the greenback. The Japanese Yen strengthened versus the U.S. dollar as USD/JPY slid to levels below 86.00. The decline happened in the early European Session and the Yen remained strong during the whole day. Forex traders should follow the trend and trade put options on this asset. Binary USD/CAD wasn’t controlled neither by bears nor by bulls today as the trading was quite choppy and remained between 0.9940 and 0.9965. However, currently the greenback has a slight advantage over its Canadian counterpart as small as 0.08%. The Aussie is exactly where it started trading in the Asia opening at 1.0377 after it made a multiple top pattern at 1.0395, not being able to push higher than 1.04, a psychological resistance. Forex traders should trade put options here. The New Zealand dollar also faced serious resistance at its daily high at 0.8230, where bears were very active and always managed to push prices lower. In the later hours of trading, NZD/USD spiked down to 0.8180, where buying call options happened to be extremely profitable for intraday Forex traders, because only 10 minutes later the market gained 30 pips. The most traded Yen cross – EUR/JPY, is 0.6% down from the open at the current 113.80. The decline of this pair was steep and decisive, so Forex traders should keep a close eye on in on Monday and trade some put options around 114.00, from where the drop is expected to continue. Today the Yen and the Pound are generally gaining value, so the GBP/JPY cross remains almost unchanged despite it plunged in the morning as the Japanese currency was advancing on all fronts. The cross rate is 139.05, 0.15% down from the start. Forex traders should prefer the call options as the bias in the recent hours remains bullish.

A Brief Overview of USDCAD 28/12/2012

This week the USDCAD moved in a relatively tight range all the time as investors preferred to stay on the sidelines, celebrating Christmas. On Monday we started around 0.9942 and moved lower, touching 0.9903, after pushing below both the 25-period and the 50-period moving averages. Towards the end of the session buyers of binary call options were also able to make money as the USDCAD pared some of its early losses to finish the day around 0.9926, slightly ahead of the 50-period moving average. On Tuesday we saw a dead cross formation by the aforementioned averages, which is interpreted as a bearish indication. The currency pair, however, traded in a close range for the rest of the day, providing traders if binary range in options with plenty of opportunities to make money.  We touched highs of 0.9934 and lows of 0.9910 before finishing slightly off of these lows at 0.9920. On Wednesday some of the investors returned to the markets and we saw an increase in the volatility, although the volumes remained quite low. The first part of the day belonged to the bulls, which sent the USDCAD as high as 0.9951, providing traders of binary call options with good opportunities for profit. The second half, however, saw the bears return to the market and the sell-off sent the currency pair to 0.9929, slightly ahead of the 25-period moving average. The Thursday session was unexpectedly dynamic, mainly due to the data coming from the U.S. In the early hours of the session we saw the USDCAD slip to lows of 0.9903, well below its 100-period moving average. But after the news for the U.S. economy hit the wires the greenback started appreciating against the Loonie with investors running to move their holdings in safer assets. Although the unemployment claims showed that the number of people who filed for unemployment insurance dropped to 350,000 in the previous week from 362,000, the other data disappointed. The consumer confidence dropped to 65.1, its lowest level since August. Analysts were expecting a more modest decline to 70.3 from 71.5 in the previous month. The reading for November was also revised on the downside – from 73.7 to 71.5. Investors were also monitoring closely the data, coming from the housing market. It also disappointed, showing that the number of single-family homes that were sold during the previous month rose at a slower than projected pace. To make the matters worse, the number for November was also revised on the downside – from 368,000 to 361,000. After the news were released the USDCAD got a boost, which propelled him above the 25-period, the 50-period and the 100-period moving averages. The currency pair touched highs of 0.9958 before returning to 0.9945 towards the end of the session. Today the USDCAD is trading in a tight range, providing traders of binary range in options with good opportunities for profit. We tested the support around the 25-period moving average on several occasions, but we failed to push decisively below it and we are currently trading at 0.9960, slightly off of the highs for the week. Technically speaking support in the USDCAD is provided by the 25-period moving average around 0.9948, while resistance stands around 0.9980. Oscillators are moving in mid-range with the relative strength index at 61 and the stochastic around 75. The MACD is moving sideways, slightly ahead of the key 0 level.

Disclaimer:
The information in this analysis is collected from different sources and should serve for informative purposes only. The author shall not be held responsible for the validity of the presented information. No part of this analysis recommends the purchase or sale of a currency pair or any other financial instrument.

A Brief Overview of USD/JPY 28/12/2012

This week the Japanese yen moved higher almost all the time, providing traders of binary call options with plenty of opportunities to make money. On Monday, the currency pair started the session with a decent gain, but after touching highs of 84.96 is lost some of its momentum to finish the day at 84.72. On Tuesday the USDJPY moved in a tight range almost all session long, providing traders of binary range in options with good opportunities for making money. Since most markets around the world were closed for Christmas volumes remained low even after the monetary policy meeting minutes data were announced towards the end of the session. In the early hours of the Wednesday session we finally saw the volatility return to the markets with the bulls dominating the market. The buying pressure propelled the USDJPY higher to rates of 85.37 with the currency pair finishing the session slightly off of them, at 85.30. The Thursday session saw another rally in the USDJPY, but this time the advances were rather limited as market participants prepared for the battery of economic data, which was scheduled to be announced later in the day. Around 11:30 p.m. the household spending figures were released, showing that the value of all expenditures, made by customers rose by 0.2% in the month of November. Analysts were pricing in a sharper increase of 0.8%. At the same time the core CPI figures showed that the price of goods and services purchased by customers in Tokyo dropped by 0.6%, a steeper decline than the 0.5% economists were projecting. This was the indicator’s lowest reading since July. Industrial production for November also dropped more than expected. Analysts were expecting a decline of 0.5%, but instead the value of output produced by manufacturers slipped by 1.7%. To make the matters worse, the number for October was revised on the downside – from 1.8% to 1.6%. Retail sales was another indicator economists were focusing on. Here the surprise was not that big. We saw an increase of 1.3% of the total value of sales on the retail level for November against a prognosis of an increase of 1.2%. After the news hit the wires the yen continued to depreciate against its U.S. counterpart with the USDJPY rallying all Thursday long. The currency pair even traded above 86.50 for a while, finishing slightly ahead of that level. Today the advances of the greenback against the yen finally stopped as market participants decided to cash in their winning ahead of the weekend. The USDJPY slipped below its 25-period moving average and tested the support around the 50-period moving average on several occasions. The move came even after the average cash earning for November disappointed, declining by 1.1%. Analysts were projecting a more modest decline of 0.4%. Even the downward revision of the October number was unable to put a halt to the yen’s appreciation against the U.S. dollar. The USDJPY is currently trading at 86.10, slightly off of the lows for the day. Technically speaking support in the currency pair is provided by the 50-period moving average, which is standing around 85.97. Resistance on the other hand stands around 86.50, where the Thursday highs are. Oscillators are trending lower with the relative strength index at 50 and the stochastic approaching oversold territory, standing at 31. The MACD is issuing sell signals and is currently standing slightly above the key 0 level.

 

Disclaimer:
The information in this analysis is collected from different sources and should serve for informative purposes only. The author shall not be held responsible for the validity of the presented information. No part of this analysis recommends the purchase or sale of a currency pair or any other financial instrument.

 

Forex Weekly Setup 24/12/2012 – 28/12/2012

New week, starting December 24th, has only 6 major events due to Christmas holidays. Pay attention to the U.S. New Home Sales on Thuesday.

Let’s review the events. All times are GMT.

  1. Japanese CSPI: Published on Monday at 23:50 GMT. The market expects a score of -0.6%. If the outcome is -0.3% or higher, PUT USD/JPY. If the result is -0.8% or lower, CALL option on USD/JPY.
  2. U.S. S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI: Wednesday, 14:00. Exp. 3.9%. 4.1% or higher, CALL USD/GBP. 2.8% or lower, PUT USD/GBP.
  3. U.K. BBA Mortgage Approvals: Thursday, 09:30. Exp. 34.6K. 35.1K or more, CALL GBP/USD. 31.6K or less, PUT GBP/USD.
  4. U.S. Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 13:30. Exp. 365K. 368K or more, PUT USD/JPY. 356K or less, CALL USD/JPY.
  5. U.S. New Home Sales: Thursday, 15:00. Exp. 382K. 389K or more, CALL USD/JPY. 367K or less, PUT USD/JPY.
  6. U.S. Pending Home Sales: Friday, 15:00. Exp. -0.3%. 5.5% or higher, CALL USD/JPY. -0.5% or lower, PUT USD/JPY.

These expected market reactions and setups are general market commentary. This is by no means any type of investment advice.

Quick explanations:

CALL options – if the price closes at a higher level than the price you purchased at expiry time, you make 75%. If it closes below, you’re left with 10%.
PUT options – if the price closes under the price you purchased at expiry time, you make 75%. If it closes above, you’re left with 10%.

The data for these news events has been analyzed given previous releases and reactions, current market conditions and more. Significant surprises to market consensus, as given by surveys of economists, normally trigger sharp market reactions that proceed for a long period of time. When some events collide with each other, they can offset each other. So, these events aren’t in the list.

Source: http://www.bocrunch.com/category/weekly-binary-options-setups/

Daily Market Review 28/12/2012

Forex markets overnight were somewhat dynamic with the Greenback and the Euro gaining further against their Japanese counterpart as the last full trading week of 2012 is crawling to its end in Asia this Friday.
Forex for USDJPY traded through last night’s Y86.16 high marked in the New York session, and lifted today in Asia to Y86.63, its highest since late July 2010. Last night, the pair had stopped shy of the mid-August 2010 peaks around Y86.30-35.
Forex investors should be aware of a possible test of Y87 due to low-liquidity conditions during the New Year’s break. Japanese financial markets are closed between Dec. 29 and Jan. 3.
The level around Y87 stood as a very strong support level back in 2008 and 2009 when the Greenback embarked on a steep fall from above Y110 level. Considering the fact that there is no major technical resistance levels following the most recent surge, we should take the Y87 mark as a major upside target.
Technicals remain favorable – there is not much in the way until the July 28, 2010 high around Y88.11, which was also an important low from earlier in 2010.
Forex for EURJPY have traded as high as Y114.69 this morning, the highest since July last year, and were last at Y114.45 compared with a U.S. closing level of Y113.99 overnight.
EURUSD was a modest mover, last trading at $1.3244 as the morning session kicks in in Europe, after a $1.3232 to $1.3250 range, and up slightly from $1.3237 overnight.
The U.S. fiscal cliff worries remain at the top of investors’ agenda as the New Year is closing in. President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden are meeting Friday afternoon with congressional leaders to discuss the fiscal cliff impasse, the White House confirmed Thursday evening. The meeting will follow up a day full of verbal, at times rather rude recriminations, finger pointing by both parties and would seem to raise hopes a deal can be reached by year end.
One lawmaker though, Sen. Bob Corker, a Republican from Tennessee, said he expects the White House session “will be more about optics” than serious negotiating.
Asian stocks and the Nikkei 225 in particular, continued its relentless rise closing the final trading day of the year up 0.70% at 10395.18. The Japanese benchmark extended its yearly gains to 23%, supported by stimulus hopes from the new Government and a weakening yen. The Bank Of Japan is expected to further expand its monetary policy to counter deflation that has been plaguing the country for years. The broader index Topix, ended the session up 0.67% at 859.80. Forex traders should be aware that the Japanese stock market is closed until the 3rd of January and will reopen for a single trading session on Friday next week.
Chinese stocks performed rather well, with the Shanghai Composite trading higher in the afternoon session by almost 1%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gained about 0.15%.
South Korean Kospi index rose a more modest 0.49%, Australia’s ASX 200 rose 0.50% and Taiwan’s index gained 0.69%.
Looking ahead today’s calendar is rather light, with French GDP and Consumer Spending at 07:45 GMT followed by Spanish Retail Sales around 08:00 GMT and Italian PPI data at 09:00 GMT. The US session offers the Chicago PMI at 14:45 GMT followed by Pending Home Sales numbers at 15:00 GMT. Any news about negotiations on the fiscal cliff are still hanging over trader’s Holiday mood, so we advise Forex traders to remain vigilant.
Disclaimer:
The information in this analysis is collected from different sources and should serve for informative purposes only. The author shall not be held responsible for the validity of the presented information. No part of this analysis recommends the purchase or sale of a currency pair or any other financial instrument.

A Brief Look At NIKKEI 28/12/2012

The value of Forex on the most prominent Japanese benchmark index- NIKKEI 225 rose by 0.7% during the early Asian trading sessions. The year-on-year value comparison shows that namely the current one has marked the largest increase- up by 23%, since 2005. Today` s value of Forex on the index is the highest since the earthquake in 2011. Asian stocks rose after a governmental report was published, stating that consumer prices have fallen which could eventually trigger greater speculation on the central bank` s response to the government calls for increasing the asset purchases. Consumer prices have decreased by 0.1% in November, further bolstering the newly elected Prime Minister- Shinzo Abe to push for an even greater monetary easing. Canon, Toshiba and Mitsubishi are among the largest gainers, while the top losers are Konami and the predominantly state governed utilities such as electricity and the broader energy sector. Key industry which has greatly increased in value is the financial one. Forex on shares of financial intermediaries have surged during the last month on investors` optimism that reflation would boost the value of domestic assets, increase loan demand and the degree of risk aversion ultimately leading to people being more confident. The graph reveals the positive trend which marks its` beginning from the mid- November. The origin of the positive impulse coincides with the intersection of the 50 and 200 Day Moving Averages suggesting that as long as the pattern is present the value of Forex on NIKKEI 225 would continue to be upward sloping. The Bollinger Bands provide investors with the eventual range within which the index will be trading. Having that in mind it is more than obvious that Forex traders could easily take advantage of any micro swings within the range, both with call and put options. The Relative Strength Index reads in the overbought zone, but even though it could be expected that the value of the benchmark would continue its positive trend, considering the eventual political interventions that are yet to come.

Disclaimer:
The information in this analysis is collected from different sources and should serve for informative purposes only. The author shall not be held responsible for the validity of the presented information. No part of this analysis recommends the purchase or sale of a currency pair or any other financial instrument.

A Brief Look At EURUSD 27/12/2012

Traded in ascending channel during the Holidays, the currency pair EURUSD embarked on a downward move today, after better than expected U.S. economic reports. The main culprit behind this negative movement is the data announced about new home sales in the United States, which measures the annualized number of new single – family homes that were sold during the previous month. The actual results for the month of November were announced at 377K having in mind that October saw 361K, which means that the economic gauge is 4.4% higher, providing traders of Forex with good opportunities to make profits. Currently, the currency pair is strongly supported at 1.32153, where the 200- Period Exponential Moving Average is. If the US dollar continues to appreciate against the euro and the pair manages to break below this level, this could be a prerequisite for a continuing of the downward movement to the next key support at the levels around 1.31857. An eventual break through this level, could lead the price to 1.3170, where next support lies. On the other hand, if investors regain their confidence in the single currency, and it starts to appreciate against the greenback, we can expect an intensive movement to 1.3282. Another indicator, providing traders of binary call options with good opportunities to make profits if the Relative Strength Index, which is located close to oversold territory. This could be a prerequisite for more bullish traders to enter the market. As a result from the good news out of the United States, the greenback is appreciating against its major peers. Versus the Japanese yen, the US dollar is up by 0.49 %, and now the currency pair is available for trading at 86.05 yen for each dollar. Against its Canadian and Australian counterparties, the greenback is gaining 0.06% to 0.9949 and 0.25% to 0.9660 respectively.

Disclaimer:
The information in this analysis is collected from different sources and should serve for informative purposes only. The author shall not be held responsible for the validity of the presented information. No part of this analysis recommends the purchase or sale of a currency pair or any other financial instrument.