An Overview of Facebook – 31/01/2013

Forex traders were able to profit nicely from Facebook in the recent days as the stock moved nicely, usually gaining or losing more than one percent per session. Wednesday was no exception, as the market moved up and closed 1.48% higher than its previous daily close. Some of the movements were provoked by Mark Zuckerberg saying that in 2012 for the first time mobile device users became more than desktop ones. He said this transition has been challenging but the company is quite satisfied with this strong foundation. The statistics for the mobile usage are very respectful – the number of users went up 57% to reach 680 million. The company’s mobile advertisement revenue doubled from the third to the last quarter, making up 23% of total ad revenue.
The company reported non-GAAP earnings per share of 17 cents. Revenue is up 40%. Zuckerberg said according to the new added workers this year that the company is focusing on its profit in the long term, not in the short.
Technically speaking, since the middle of December the stock is in bull market. The 50-period exponential moving average on the daily chart was broken to the upside on November 14. The market closed above it and continued to climb towards the resistance at 24.20. It was easily broken and turned into support quickly and attack of 29.50 was imminent. Forex traders were able to profit a lot from the steady push bulls made in December and January. Currently trading happens just above $32
and the most likely scenario is test of 33.50 in the following days. Drop below 29.20 would negate the bullish scenario and postpone it for a bit so Forex traders should be wary.


The information in this analysis is collected from different sources and should serve for informative purposes only. The author shall not be held responsible for the validity of the presented information. No part of this analysis recommends the purchase or sale of a currency pair or any other financial instrument.

A Brief Overview of the EUR/USD – 31/01/2013

How much higher the EUR/USD could go? The people who called 1.30, 1.32, 1.33, 1.34 and 1.35 as “strong resistance levels” are now saying the same thing about the 1.36/38 area. Additionally, Goldman Sachs recently revised its forecast from 1.25 to 1.40 for the coming months, and UBS targeted 1.37 as a 1-month goal. While the current EUR/USD bullish trend seems to be here to stay a short term corrective movement may be in the cards over the next couple of trading sessions benefiting traders of binary put options. The RSI currently sits in overbought territory. The EUR/USD closed the day 0.55% higher at 1.3560, with the next resistance at 1.3581 (Upper Bollinger) ahead of 1.3615 (November 18, 2011, high) and then 1.3641 (high November 15). On the downside a breach of the 1.3500 level, may push the pair down to 1.480 and potentially 1.3392. Fundamentally, the U.S. reported its first GDP decline since the Q2’09 but private jobs data showed increase of 192k during January. Additionally, the FOMC statement highlighted the fact that rates would be at extremely low levels as long as the jobless rate continues to be above 6.5% and the inflation figures below 2.5%. The statement also informed that MBS and Treasury purchases would maintain the previous pace at $85 billion per month. In addition, inflation expectations remain stable, while the housing sector would be gathering traction. In conclusion, it appears that volatility levels will remain elevated, benefiting traders of Forex.


Disclaimer: The information in this analysis is collected from different sources and should serve for informative purposes only. The author shall not be held responsible for the validity of the presented information. No part of this analysis recommends the purchase or sale of a currency pair or any other financial instrument.

Daily Market Review 31/01/2013

Forex traders should pay attention to the increase in Japan’s factory output to year and a half high. This raises hopes that growing global demand and exports will help the economy recover from its slump. The data could encourage the government, which is challenged by inconsistent growth and deflation. Analysts say Japan’s economy will grow at a moderate rate this year as exports will increase due to higher global demand for Japanese production. The export-oriented country is significantly eased by the low exchange rate of the Yen versus the U.S. dollar. USD/JPY is trading at two-year-high after the Yen recorded twelve weeks of losses in a row. At September the pair traded at 78, and now it’s at 90.85. The market opened at 90.81 and is currently only a few pips higher. Today the pair is expected to rise to 90.10, so Forex traders better remain on call options.
EUR/USD tested its yesterday high that lays at 1.3587, but several pips below it failed and dropped to the current 1.3550. The pair is expected to pull back a bit because it hit the upper line of ascending channel that’s visible on a daily and four-hour chart. USD/CHF is up 0.2% as the Frank lost some value during Asia trading. The pair is very near its January low at 0.9070 and considering the strong momentum it showed yesterday, it’s highly possible that trading will drop below it very soon. The British pound recovered a bit from its severe losses in the recent weeks. GBP/USD closed green on Tuesday and Wednesday and gained 0.7% for these two days. The Australian dollar dropped 0.9% yesterday and is showing signs of weakness in the long-term. AUD/USD hit its December 12 high at 1.0585 in the first third of January, but then it collapsed more than 1.5%. The New Zealand dollar is steadier as in the recent days it’s not moving in any direction at all and is ranging between 0.8350 and 0.8380 despite several spikes outside the range. The daily outlook for the pair is slightly bearish and thus Forex traders should avoid call options.
The U.S. stock market lost around 0.3% on average yesterday. Worse-than-expected GDP for the last quarter of 2012 disappointed investors. S&P 500 closed the session at 1501.85, recording 0.39% loss. Dow Jones hit 13960 and met some severe resistance there, provoked by the nearness of the psychological 14000 just above it. NASDAQ Composite closed the session at 3142, 0.35% lower than it opened. Forex traders should pay a lot of attention when prices are near 3160/65, because this is crucial resistance level that pushed the market down several times. Breakout above it would unleash new bull rally.
Apple lost third of percent yesterday and closed at 456.80. The highest price of the stock since its huge gap down is 465.73, and for the medium-term trend to return to bullish it’s needed to see trading going above this level. Facebook Inc. added 1.46% to its market value yesterday after it lost almost double that on Tuesday. 30.70/80 is proven to be reliable support and Forex traders should trade call options if prices drop near it. To the other hand, breakout below it would signal that traders should turn their eyes down to 29.50. Amazon.com Inc. opened 15 dollars higher on Wednesday compared to previous day close after the company announced its Q4 and end-year 2012 earnings. Both domestic and foreign sales rose. The company sold products and services worth 12 billion USD in North American and made sales worth 9 billion dollars overseas. The company’s operating income jumped 56%.

Disclaimer: The information in this analysis is collected from different sources and should serve for informative
purposes only. The author shall not be held responsible for the validity of the presented information. No part of this analysis recommends the purchase or sale of a currency pair or any other financial instrument.

Economic Events – 31/01/2013

00:00 AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM)

Forecast: Previous: 4.7%
Housing Industry Association (HIA) New Home Sales measures the change in the number of newly constructed homes sold. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD.

07:00 GBP Nationwide HPI (MoM)

Forecast: 0.2% Previous: -0.1%
The Nationwide Housing Price Index (HPI) measures the change in the selling price of homes with mortgages backed by Nationwide. It is the U.K.’s second earliest report on housing inflation. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.

07:45 EUR French Consumer Spending (MoM)

Forecast: 0.2% Previous: 0.2%
French Consumer Spending measures the change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods expenditures by consumers. Consumer spending accounts for the majority of economic activity. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.

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A brief overview of EUR/USD – 30/01/2013

The EUR/USD has managed break through the psychologically important $1.3500 level, early on Wednesday morning. This is being helped by the seemingly endless appetite for risk and the consequential triggering of stop-loss orders. Given the sharp rise in the euro over the last several trading sessions, the EURUSD may be poised for a short-term correction over the next couple of trading sessions. Fundamentally, there seem to be two opposite realities dominating the Eurozone consciousness: the the ‘over-optimistic’ one, worshiping only risk appetite and moving along with its trends. This worldview is prevailing at the moment and is expected to extend the rally post-ECB in the upcoming sessions. And there’s the other one. The reality which rests upon the majority of the economic-oriented FX community. The one in which participants are still perplexed as to the recent rocketing of the shared currency and are trying to make sense of what is going on. The new tighter conditions imposed by the ECB have resulted in higher yields in peripheral debt markets in response to a more stabilized financial sector, and is the proper excuse the euro was looking for to climb to higher levels. Technically, the pair is trading above its 50 and 200-day moving averages and the RSI is in overbought territory.


Disclaimer: The information in this analysis is collected from different sources and should serve for informative purposes only. The author shall not be held responsible for the validity of the presented information. No part of this analysis recommends the purchase or sale of a currency pair or any other financial instrument.

Daily Market Review – US Opening 30/01/2013

European equity markets are trading lower after U.S. GDP data came in weaker than expected. The U.S. economy unexpectedly contracted in the fourth quarter, mainly due to a decrease in defense spending, suffering its first decline since the 2007-09 recession. Weaker than expected earnings results in the tobacco and oil space put addition downward pressure on the broader markets. The FTSE 100 is lower by 0.12%, while the DAX and CAC 40 were lower by 0.38% and 0.30%, respectively. Shares of Saipem dropped by 36% after the company gave a bleak earnings outlook. Peers such as Petrofac, Technip and Subsea 7 also traded lower. In the tobacco sector, Imperial Tobacco dropped by almost 5.0% after the company said that it expects first-half operating earnings to be down year on year. Shares of H&M fell by 1.95%, after the company announced a drop in full-year earnings. On the economic front, Spain’s economy fell deeper into recession, while Switzerland’s leading indicator data showed that economic momentum slowed more than expected in January. US stocks also opened lower on disappointing GDP report. The DJIA is lower by 0.06%, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are lower by 0.13% and 0.01%, respectively. Boing traded higher after the company reported earnings results that exceeded expectations. Amazon was up by more than 6% on impressive profit margins. The S&P GSCI Index jumped to the highest level since September. Crude oil in New York was up 0.1 percent at $97.67 a barrel. Gold futures rallied 1.1 percent to $1,680.70 an ounce after yesterday snapping a four-day slump.

Disclaimer: The information in this analysis is collected from different sources and should serve for informative purposes only. The author shall not be held responsible for the validity of the presented information. No part of this analysis recommends the purchase or sale of a currency pair or any other financial instrument.

A Brief Technical Overview of AUD/USD – 30/01/2013

Looking at the monthly chart of AUD/USD, we can see that after the initial uptrend, which started the beginning of 2009, the price action was stopped by the monthly zone of interest at 1.1010. Since then the price kept on making lower swing highs and higher swing lows, which indicates that it is consolidating before continuing in one or the other direction. The price action is currently in the middle of that triangle setup and there are many monthly levels of interest at 1.0145, 1.0214, 1.0283, 1.0341, 1.0393 and 1.0520, which can be used for Forex to be placed.
Switching to the weekly chart of AUD/USD, the narrowing range is even clearer and we can identify even more stopping points which the price action could respect. It has already been stopped four times by the weekly zone of interest between 1.0550 and 1.0585, forming another internal range between this weekly zone as a top and the monthly support level at 1.0145.If AUD/USD continues the confirmed downtrend, we should be expecting as easiest target the monthly support at 1.0341, which is the previous swing low. If this swing low is broken, we should expect the price action to go to the bottom of the weekly range at 1.0145. Both of those price levels are suitable for placement of binary call options. There are a few more weekly support levels at 1.0172 and 1.0236, where we could place even more binary call options if the price action respects them. In case the price action breaks the resistance zone at 1.0550 ~ 1.0585, we could take advantage of the weekly resistance levels at 1.0752 and 1.0854 where we could place binary put options with confidence.
If we analyze the daily chart of AUD/USD, we can clearly see the strength in the selling power. Every swing high is made with many bars and big effort to reach the top, while every swing low is formed by strong and swift drops in the price. This indicates that the selling pressure is stronger in the current market conditions and binary put options are the better choice till the weekly resistance zone is respected. In the short term, we see that AUD/USD was rejected by the monthly s/r at 1.0393 and it went through the weekly level at 1.0452. When we see such price behavior, the most likely scenario is for it to reach another monthly resistance. The closest monthly s/r is at 1.0520 where we expect strong rejection and continuation of the downtrend. Still, if the daily chart confirms that it respects the weekly s/r where the price action is, we should wait for it to reach the monthly resistance. Keeping in mind the high time frame analysis that we did so far, we could place some binary put options at 1.0360, 1.0378, 1.0410, 1.0458, 1.0473 and 1.0530 if the price respects them or it breaks them and then retraces back.


Disclaimer: The information in this analysis is collected from different sources and should serve for informative purposes only. The author shall not be held responsible for the validity of the presented information. No part of this analysis recommends the purchase or sale of a currency pair or any other financial instrument.

A Brief Overview of Binary EURUSD – 30/01/2013

The EURUSD had a pretty volatile week with the currency pair moving in and out of positive territory providing traders of both binary call options and binary put options with decent opportunities for making money. On Monday market participants preferred to stay on the sidelines in the early hours of the session in expectation of the M3 money supply figures, which were scheduled to be announced in the morning. As a result the euro traded in a tight range around its 25-period and its 50-period moving averages. Just before the numbers were announced we had some pick up in the volatility of the currency pair with the euro dropping to 1.3422 before bouncing back up to retest the resistance at the 25-period moving average. According to the data, released by the European Central Bank the total quantity of domestic currency in circulation and in banks rose by 3.3% in the month of December. Analysts were pricing in a much steeper increase of 3.9%, expecting the rate of money supply growth to rise on a month-over-month basis. The EURUSD dropped on the news, touching lows of 1.3426 at one point, slightly ahead of the support at the 50-period moving average, where some support started forming. Around noon bulls returned to the markets once again sending the EURUSD back up, pushing it above the 25-period moving average. The buying pressure sent the euro to highs of 1.3477 against the U.S. dollar, but the rally quickly ran out of steam and we saw the currency pair decline in the evening hours of the Monday session with volatility slowly taking a turn to the worse as investors closed some of their positions in expectation of the German consumer climate figures, which were scheduled to be announced in the early hours of the Tuesday session. The German consumer climate came in just in line with expectations at 5.8. At the same time the reading for the previous month was revised on the upside – from 5.6 to 5.7. The EURUSD initially dropped after the release of the data, but then slowly started building up momentum, shooting as high as 1.3496 at one point during the day. The rest of the session continued to be dominated by the bulls, but they were much less aggressive. Buyers of binary call options were the big gainers in the process, but it was certainly not that easy to make money. The 1.3480 started acting as a support with the EURUSD finishing slightly ahead of it – at 1.3488. Today the euro is moving around the flatline as investors are preparing for the Spanish GDP numbers, which will be announced around 08:00 GMT. Analysts are expecting the Spanish economy to have contracted by further 0.6% in the previous quarter, which will be the lowest reading of this indicator since April 2009. We are now experiencing some movement on the upside ahead of the announcement with the euro currently changing hands at 1.3510 per dollar, slightly below the highs of 1.3515 of the session. Technically speaking support in the euro is provided by the 1.3480 level, while resistance stands around the highs we reached in December. Oscillators are trending higher with the stochastic already in overbought territory, standing at 81 and the relative strength index around the upper band of its respective range. The MACD is well above the key 0 level, but is still below the highs it touched earlier in the month.

Disclaimer: The information in this analysis is collected from different sources and should serve for informative purposes only. The author shall not be held responsible for the validity of the presented information. No part of this analysis recommends the purchase or sale of a currency pair or any other financial instrument.

Daily Market Review 30/01/2013

Another European market opening is on the way and binary opions traders are keen to discover that Asian shares rallied to their highest level in nearly 18 months on Wednesday as robust U.S. data has hit the wires and investor confidence in the global economic picture is improving ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to be announced later in the session.
Positive developments in the US economic recovery on brisk expansion in the housing market and China’s economic growth forecast for 2013 raised boosted oil prices and copper. The MSCI index of Asia-Pacific shares outside of Japan gained 0.6 percent, continuing the move from yesterday’s 1 percent rally which ended a four-day losing streak. Gains in the shares were led by a 1 percent rise in the energy sector, as U.S. crude oil held steady around $97.58 a barrel
European equities reached fresh two-year highs on Tuesday, whilst commodity-reliant Australian shares picked up 0.2 percent after hitting a fresh 21-month high as top miners climbed on rebounding copper prices.
Equities remain the favourable asset for the year so far with Hong Kong shares jumping 0.8 percent and Shanghai shares rising 0.3 percent. Japan’s Nikkei 225 advanced 2.3 percent to another 33 month high, in part because of another drift lower in the JPY.
Investors in Forex should pay close attention to The Fed which ends a two day meeting around 19:15 GMT on Wednesday. Whilst few market watchers expect any near-term shift in its current, very accommodative stance, yet it remains to be seen whether the FED is still cautious about the economy despite recent improving sentiment from the EU and the successful fiscal cliff resolution so far. Investors in Forex will concentrate their attention on the statement the FED releases and whether the FOMC members will divest their attention by pulling back from their aggressive monetary stimulus. The minutes from the December meeting revealed uneasiness amongst some members as to the asset buying program with tensions rising, that sustained asset price reflation could be on the way.
The JPY remained under pressure with the Bank of Japan set to keep on pursuing strong monetary easing under blessing from Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s vociferous comments, pushing for radical reflationary policies to end years of deflation. The USDJPY advanced 0.2 percent to 90.93 yen, near its highest level since June 2010 of 91.32 reached on Monday. The EURJPY gained 0.2 percent to 122.66 yen, not far from 122.91 also touched on Monday, its highest point since April.
The EURUSD flushed stops above $1.35 in the start of the European session, trading at 1.3510 as of writing – a new 14 month high
Investors in Forex for Amazon.com shares hit a record high on Tuesday after reporting better-than-expected quarterly profit, bumped up by the growth of higher-margin businesses during the fiercely competitive holiday quarter. The world’s largest Internet retailer said that its cloud computing services, video content sales and its aggressive expansion in e-books helped increase profitability. Chief Executive Jeff Bezos emphasized on the Kindle’s e-book business, calling it a multi-billion dollar category that grew about 70 percent in 2012.
Meanwhile, the retreat by Republicans from threats to push the United States into a debt crisis has stayed the hand of at least one credit ratings agency, but that does not mean the United States is suddenly safe. Forex traders should continue to keep track of political developments in the US Congress. Other news today include the first estimate of US GDP for Q4, alongside with the ADP employment report released at 13:15 GMT.

Disclaimer: The information in this analysis is collected from different sources and should serve for informative purposes only. The author shall not be held responsible for the validity of the presented information. No part of this analysis recommends the purchase or sale of a currency pair or any other financial instrument.

Economic Events 30/01/2013

08:00 CHF KOF Leading Indicators

Forecast: 1.16 Previous: 1.28
The KOF Leading Indicators Index is designed to predict the direction of the economy over the following six months. The index is a composite reading of 12 economic indicators related to banking confidence, production, new orders, consumer confidence and housing. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CHF, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CHF.

10:10 EUR Italian 10-Year BTP Auction

Forecast: Previous: 4.48%
The figures displayed in the calendar represent the average yield on the Buoni del Tesoro Poliannuali or BTP auctioned. Italian BTP bonds have maturities of five, ten, fifteen and thirty years. Governments issue treasuries to borrow money to cover the gap between the amount they receive in taxes and the amount they spend to refinance existing debt and/or to raise capital. The yield on the BTP represents the return an investor will receive by holding the treasury for its entire duration. All bidders receive the same rate at the highest accepted bid. Yield fluctuations should be monitored closely as an indicator of the government debt situation. Investors compare the average rate at auction to the rate at previous auctions of the same security.

13:15 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change

Forecast: 163K Previous: 215K
The ADP National Employment Report is a measure of the monthly change in non-farm, private employment, based on the payroll data of approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients. The release, two days ahead of government data, is a good predictor of the government’s non-farm payroll report. The change in this indicator can be very volatile. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

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