A Brief Look At Gold 15/05/2013

The value of Forex on the futures of the precious metal declined for a fifth consecutive day providing Forex investors with great profit opportunities on the negative side. The decline in the value of gold is further enhanced by the recent strengthening of the dollar. Silver and other metals, on the other side, retreated. Gold declined close to the psychological 1400 per ounce, intermediaries` physical holdings declined by 16% so far this year, losing 412 tons on a global scale. In case the value of the US dollar continues trending upward, Forex investors could expect the value of the precious metal to continue its decline, even though a brief correction might be possible. Institutional investors are yet to announce their holdings, by the end of the month, so the value of the commodity could potentially be significantly influenced by the numbers.

The graph clearly indicates the downward trend which originates from the beginning of the month. The numerous breaches of the Lower Bollinger Band suggest that there is a greater activity towards negative expectations, compared to positive ones. The 50 and the 200 Day Moving Averages provide solid grounds for the validity of an eventually detailed technical analysis, as the intersections of both coincides with pattern changes. The short term resistance level is set at this week` high at 1445 and an eventual breach of that level would signal that the already started correction could persist in the short to medium term. Short term support level is set at the psychological 1400 and in case the value of the metal drops below this level, Forex investors could expect the negative trend to gain even a more substantial momentum. The Relative Strength Index reads in the oversold territory so eventual short term bullish expectations could get paid off.

Disclaimer: The information in the above analysis is collected from different sources and should serve for informative purposes only. The author shall not be held responsible for the validity of the presented information. No part of this analysis recommends the purchase or sale of a currency pair or any other financial instrument.

A Brief Look At Crude 06/05/2013

The price of Crude oil may test $100 a barrel this week boosted by the better than expected jobs data in U.S. Investors are also concerned over the tensions in Middle East. On Monday, futures of crude oil rose to a one month high close to $97 a barrel after carried out a second air strike in Syria. The Forex on Crude jumped 1.4 percent on Friday after Labor Department data showed that world’s largest economy created 165K jobs in April. Expectations of economists were for 148K increase. The unemployment rate in U.S. also fell to 7.5 percent from 7.6 percent I the previous period.
Moreover, United Nations Secretary-General Bank Ki-moon warned against escalating situation in Syria. Yesterday, Israel struck targets near Damascus, targeting what its officials said were Iranian missiles bound for Hezbollah. Iran called on the region to unite against Israel and said it was ready to train the Damascus government’s army.
forex traders are also concerned over the slowing growth in China and European troubles. On Wednesday, China will release its trade balance while Bank of England will meet on Thursday to decide on its monetary policy. In the past week European Central bank cut its official rates with 25 basis points to the record 0.5 percent. The decision of the central bank came after a pressure for some countries in the euro zone and amid rising unemployment rate in the union. The percentage of total work force that is out of work rose to 12.1 percent from 12.0 in March.
Other energy commodities are trading quite as the Natural gas is moving around $4.016 per cubic after falling 0.62%. The Gasoline is available at $2.8291 a gallon after rising 0.13 while heating oil is trading at $2.891 a gallon after rising 0.23%.
In technical points of view, the price of Crude oil is moving in a large positive trend from 87.85. Most of forex traders took the rebound from 87.85 as a correction of the previous decline, but price formed a new bullish trend which continues to be in action. First support could be projected at the previous high at 94.66 and a clear break there would change the bias to neutral. Until this level holds positive sentiment will be intact. On upside, in case of a break and daily close above the pick at 97.09 further bullish moves could be seen. Some reversal before new attack of the tops is possible as the Relative Strength Index crossed the 70 level from upside.

Disclaimer:
The information in this analysis is collected from different sources and should serve for informative purposes only. The author shall not be held responsible for the validity of the presented information. No part of this analysis recommends the purchase or sale of a currency pair or any other financial instrument.

A Brief Look at Gold 15/04/2013

The Forex on Gold fell to its lowest level since two years earlier in the morning. The price of the precious hit a low of $1385 an ounce after the Chinese Gross Domestic Product data disappointed. The GDP of the second largest economy in the world fell to 7.7 percent in the first quarter of the year below expected 8 percent level. The percentage for the previous quarter was 7.9 percent.

The price of yellow metal dramatically dropped on fears about central bank sales and holdings on global exchange-traded funds sank to their lowest in more than a year. The investors that have long positions in the yellow metal are also concerned that U.S. Federal Reserve would soon end its bond buying program. The central bank currently is purchasing government bonds for $85 billon every single month. The U.S. economy also is posting a recovery from the crisis in the last several months. Some analysts of the metal said that the price movement below $1500 is not a good sign for the commodity and they are not sure where to project the new support.

The futures in United States for June delivery fell more than 5 percent while the Tokyo gold futures tumbled around 8 percent. The Japanese futures made its biggest daily rally since September 2011. One of the factors that are also weighing on the gold’s price is Cyprus’ plan to sell gold reserves to raise around 400 million euros.

In technical point of view, the trend is strongly bearish after the clear break below the major support at $1525 level. The trading of Forex on gold is currently available around $1410 an ounce, but some reversal could be seen as the Relative Strength indicator is in oversold zone. A cross of the 30 level would be sign of the upside move. First resistance on upside could be projected around $1458 and price movement through it would trigger further rise towards psychological $1500 mark. On downside first support could be projected around $1380 and a price movement below it would trigger new wave on downside towards $1225 level.

Disclaimer:
The information in this analysis is collected from different sources and should serve for informative purposes only. The author shall not be held responsible for the validity of the presented information. No part of this analysis recommends the purchase or sale of a currency pair or any other financial instrument.

A Brief Look at Crude 25/03/2013

Crude oil climbs above $94 after approval of the rescue plan in Cyprus. Forex on Crude oil gained 48 cents to 94.19, after rising for the third straight week. The plan of euro zone finance minister, is to levy deposits over 100 000 euro in the second largest bank of the country Popular Bank of Cyprus. All other deposits that are below this amount would be protected and moved the largest Bank of Cyprus. The bailout deal has been waited from investors last week, but the parliament in the island country rejected the first proposal. The deal is to secure the bailout of 10 billion euros that banking sector need.
Investors triggered new rose of the crude oil after Friday’s rally of the black gold. In the end of the past week Forex on Crude oil advanced 1.44%, closing at 93.71, after Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) posted that it would reduce oil shipments over the next few weeks.
Technically, Forex on Crude oil marked mostly sideways trading in the previous week. The black gold started the week with decline of one dollar followed by fast rally. The support at 91.60 hold which suggest that rebound from 89.33 is still not finished. The up side movement would continue towards 98.24 resistance level. Break of the last would change formation and would give sign of further rise of the Crude oil price. On down side break through the minor support at 91.60 will suggest that positive wave from 89.33 is finished and will turn the bias back to negative zone. Major support could be projected at lowest level of the year 89.33 and break there could extend bearish trend from 98.24. In long term view, price actions from 114.83 are viewed as a triangle consolidation pattern. Such consolidation could still be in progress and Forex on Crude oil remains bounded in the converging range. Price movement above 100.42 would be taken as sign that rebound from 33.29 is resumed for above 114.83.

Disclaimer:
The information in this analysis is collected from different sources and should serve for informative purposes only. The author shall not be held responsible for the validity of the presented information. No part of this analysis recommends the purchase or sale of a currency pair or any other financial instrument.

A Brief Look at Gold 22/03/2013

Forex on Gold fell on Friday from their three-week high. On Thursday the precious metal topped a new fresh high at $1616 an ounce, but concerns over Europe’s escalating debt crisis failed to take price above $1620 an ounce. Today the yellow metal is moving down and three hours after the opening in London is available around $1611.

Investors are buying Gold as a safe-haven asset amid unknown situation with Cyprus bailout. The country have deadline on Monday to agree a bailout plan. Banks have been ordered to stay closed until Tuesday and Cyprus considering some form of capital controls to prevent capital fight one they are open. The stock exchange in the country also will be closed today. On other hand, Federal Reserve indicated earlier this week that it will leave interest rates unchanged at the record low level. The central bank will continue buying $85 billion in debt each month until unemployment rate falls to 6.5% and inflation rises to a 2.5% growth rate. Most of market analysts decide that till United State continue with their quantitative program Gold will stay around current or higher level. Traders like to say that more money on the market are good news for the Gold.

After three unsuccessful tests of major support zone around 1520 market participant expect current decline in long term view to break below it. There are a lot of stops and sell stop orders below this zone and if the price activate them sharp fall could be seen. The bearish trend started in 2011 when the precious metal topped its all-time-high at $1919 an ounce. After sharp decline to $1535 an ounce, price of the Gold started moving in large range between last and $1790 an ounce. Break of one this levels could set direction in long term. In short term view, Forex on Gold are trading on upside from the beginning of March. This bullish wave looks as a correction of the previous deep decline. Investors and traders expect the corrective pattern to be limited by resistance zone around $1635. Price movement and weekly close above that level could extend correction towards psychological 1700 level. On downside, fist support could be projected at $1600 an ounce and break there would lead the price to the lowest level at this year at $1555.

Disclaimer:

The information in this analysis is collected from different sources and should serve for informative purposes only. The author shall not be held responsible for the validity of the presented information. No part of this analysis recommends the purchase or sale of a currency pair or any other financial instrument. 

A Brief Look at Crude oil 18/03/2013

Crude oil dropped today after traders were determined to seek safe haven following a radical bailout package given to Cyprus. Forex on Crude are available around 92.39 after slumped to 92.54 erasing 91 cents or 0.97%.

The euro zone agreed on Saturday to give Cyprus a 10 billion euros bailout with painful conditions. Cypriots will pay up to 10% of their savings and this might become a dangerous pattern for future bailouts in the region. Markets were also disappointed by President Barack Obama`s failure to move closer to strike a deal on deficit reduction. However, market participants are expecting the three-day visit of Barack Obama in Israel starting on March 20, his first since being elected president in 2008, during which he might highlight tensions over Iran’s nuclear program. He will also visit the Palestinian territories.

The price of the black gold moved higher in the last two weeks adding more than $3. Daily chart shows neutral trading locked by 100 and 77.20 levels. Break of one of these marks could set direction in medium term. In short term view, Forex on Crude oil are moving higher and today’s decline still doesn’t give a sign for a return of the current trend. First support on downside is around 92 mark followed by 90.90. Price movement below the last could extend loses towards the lowest level of March at 89.33. On upside price of the Forex on Crude needs clear break above topped high at 93.80 to continue for a test of major resistance level at

95.00. Bulls have to make successful break to confirm the positive momentum.

Disclaimer:

The information in this analysis is collected from different sources and should serve for informative purposes only. The author shall not be held responsible for the validity of the presented information. No part of this analysis recommends the purchase or sale of a currency pair or any other financial instrument. 

A Brief Overview of Gold Futures 01/03/2013

The value of Forex on the futures of this precious metal have declined for a third consecutive day, representing the longest streak of decline since 1997. It appears that as the global economic outlook improves Forex investors are tending to choose other assets for short to medium term investments as the US dollar strengthens and the demand for low risk assets diminishes. Business activity in the US suddenly improved at its fastest pace in a year and the level of unemployment decreased even more than expected. Both the ECB President as well the Fed Chairman announced that they are to defend their plans to continue stimulating the economy by liquidity injections in the form of governmental asset purchases. The fact that both of the world` s highly developed regions are to step up and boost local economies clearly has an impact on the demand for low risk, safe haven, commodities. The volume of Forex on gold futures was 25% below the 100 day average. Global hedge funds` holdings of the commodity have reached a five month low of 2502.7 tons, a number which is 4.9% lower than the 20/12/12 record. The graph provides a clear picture of the changes in the value of gold since the beginning of February. The short term negative trend is present and coincides with the 50 and 200 Day Moving Averages indication. The weak support level is set at the low from the 21th of February at 1554 and an eventual break of that level would signal a forthcoming continuation of the negative trend. Call options investors would face a weak resistance at 1618, but in case this point is passed there could be a medium term trend reversal. Although the Bollinger Bands provide Forex investors with the relative boundaries within which gold options should be trading, the breaches of both limits signal the presence of significant short term volatility. The Relative Strength Index is just above the oversold territory so the potential for short term positive impulses is present.

Disclaimer: The information in this analysis is collected from different sources and should serve for informative purposes only. The author shall not be held responsible for the validity of the presented information. No part of this analysis recommends the purchase or sale of a currency pair or any other financial instrument. 

A Brief Look at Gold 20/02/2013

Gold prices are hovering just above the six-month low created a couple sessions ago. This is happening as market participants move to the sidelines ahead of Federal Reserve January meeting minutes release. Last week’s move lower, along with this week’s continuing downward move, is creating a technically week chart in which traders could be readying to move to the short side of the trade. This week traders will be watching the $1600 level. A break below that level will trigger a flood of stop loss orders which will add to the selling pressure. After $1600, the next support appears to be around $1,550 level. Helping the downward momentum over the past several session is also the stronger U.S. dollar, as the U.S. dollar index continues to hang around its six-week high of 80.77. The next catalyst for gold is the Fed’s meeting minutes, which should provide a window into the central bank’s view on monetary policy. Any hint that the Fed might pause its monetary easing will likely send the U.S. dollar higher, putting even more pressure on U.S.-dollar-denominated commodities such as gold. Last but not least, the RSI is currently deep in oversold territory, which means that gold may be due for a short-term spike, benefiting traders of binary call options. In any case volatility in the gold market is most likely going to remain elevated, providing traders of Forex with descent profit opportunities.

Disclaimer: The information in this analysis is collected from different sources and should serve for informative purposes only. The author shall not be held responsible for the validity of the presented information. No part of this analysis recommends the purchase or sale of a currency pair or any other financial instrument.

A Brief Overview of Crude Oil 05/02/2013

The value of Forex on crude oil is currently close to its lowest closing level in a week, as investors vigorously await a report which is expected to show that commodity stockpiles have risen in the world` s largest crude consumer- the US. Another important indicator which will reveal the forthcoming trend of the value of the black gold is how the talks over Iran` s nuclear program will end. Current fundamental factors, regarding the fair value of crude oil appear to point to a substantial retracement, considering the previously significant overreaction towards the upside. The value of Forex on futures for March delivery gained 29 cents to reach $99.46 and it was as well associated with a 33$ higher volume than the 100 day average. Investors anticipate that the forthcoming report will show that US crude stockpiles have risen 2.5mln barrels during the last week. The American Petroleum Institute is expected to publish a release on the level of inventories today. The price of regular gasoline in the US climbed 18 cents to reach $3.54 per gallon, representing the largest gain since the end of February 2011. The graph clearly indicates investors` daily hesitation on the forthcoming value of Forex on futures of crude oil. Although the significant daily fluctuations, it appears that Forex investors tend to drive trading of the asset to occur sideways. The 50 and the 200 Day Moving Averages appear to be getting closer and immediately departing away suggesting that investors which favor the technical analysis should be extra careful due the significant intraday price fluctuations. The first support level is set just below the psychological level of 96 at 95.90 and an eventual break of that level would signal a forthcoming continuation of the negative impulse. On the other hand, the weak resistance level is set at the multiple top at 98.10 and an eventual breach of that level would suggest that bullish Forex investors are to prevail in the short to medium term. The Bollinger Bands provide a relative indication of the range within which the price of crude would fluctuate on daily basis. This combined with the fact that the Relative Strength Index reads in the neutral zone could provide binary call and put options investors with great profit opportunities on both sides.

Disclaimer: The information in this analysis is collected from different sources and should serve for informative purposes only. The author shall not be held responsible for the validity of the presented information. No part of this analysis recommends the purchase or sale of a currency pair or any other financial instrument.

Technical Overview of Coffee – 28/01/13

After the appreciation at the beginning of the year, the coffee pared some of its gains previous week, and it finished $10 below its opening price at the beginning of the week. The main culprit behind this huge retracement is the most devastating disease of coffee plants, which has ever occurred, caused by the fungus Hemileia Vastatrix, also known as Coffee Rust. The disease was discovered in 1970’s widespread in Brazil, and then it destroyed the once- flourishing coffee plantations. The disease is very bad for the coffee plants, because the symptoms include small, yellowish, oily spots which appear on the upper leaf surface, and expand into larger round spots that turn bright orange to red and finally brown with a yellow border. Later the pustules turn black. Rusted leaves drop so that affected trees are virtually denuded. Such trees usually die within a few years. So, as a result of the disease which has occurred, the Coffee Production in Central America will need $300 million to fight the disease. Because of the leaf rust, most of the biggest coffee producers may lose a lot of its crop. Guatemala’s president Otto Perez Molina said last week that the country may lose over 75% of its crop, in addition 100 000 jobs could be lost in the season ahead, because of the disease. His colleague from Costa Rica, Laura Chinchilla, announced at the same time that this number for his country may be up to 40% smaller, adding that some farmers have already lost as much as 20% of their crop. Coffee production forecasts from the Central America’s biggest grower Honduras, is expecting 767 000 bags down, considering one bag weighs 132 pounds, or 60 kilograms. Coffee export in Mexico and Central America is expecting 19.7 million bags, which is almost 3% lower than the previous forecast of 20.3 million bags.
On the other hand, the governments of the biggest coffee producers announced, that they will help farmers to overcome the problem with the disease faster. Many of coffee producers have already received aid from the local government to fight the outbreak. Technically speaking, using this retracement, the Coffee formed Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern, which is trend reversal technical configuration. This means, that in long term perspective, the investors are expecting the value of the coffee to appreciate. So in short term look, if we become witnesses to a break above the neckline of the configuration at $156, this could be a prerequisite for another
intensive movement to the positive side. The first resistance in this direction is expected at $160, followed by a small retracement for testing the $156 becomes a very strong support, the value of the coffee may rebounding from it, targets at $168, where the target of the technical configuration is. An eventual break above this level, could lead the price to the level around $188. A general resistance for the whole downward movement is the $197 level, established at the middle of the previous year. Another indicator, which is in favor of binary call traders, is the Relative Strength Index, which is located close to oversold territory. This means, that investor of Forex are expecting more bearish traders to enter the market. Another fundamental reason, which may help the coffee to add more points to its value, is the world’s largest coffee-shop operator Starbucks, which increased its net income to $432.2 million or $0.57 per share, comparing with the $382.1 million or $0.50 per share, a year earlier. Starbucks Corp., which has more than 18 200 cafes over the world, plans to open about 1 300 stores during 2013. This strengthened the company shares to $56.81, or 4.10% higher.
On the other hand, if this Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern becomes a fake signal, and this currently retracement is not exhausted, the first serious support in this direction is expected at $146. An eventual break below this level could target the price of the coffee to the next key support at $141, the level that never been touched since 2010.


Disclaimer: The information in this analysis is collected from different sources and should serve for informative purposes only. The author shall not be held responsible for the validity of the presented information. No part of this analysis recommends the purchase or sale of a currency pair or any other financial instrument.