Economic Events 20/09/2013

Holiday:         All Day                                   China – Mid-Autumn Festival

12:30 CAD   Core CPI (YoY)

Forecast: 1.0%                                  Previous: 1.4%

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer excluding food and energy, which prices tend to be very volatile. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation. The impact on the currency may go both ways, a rise in CPI may lead to a rise in interest rates and a rise in local currency, on the other hand, during recession, a rise in CPI may lead to a deepened recession and therefore a fall in local currency.

12:30 CAD   Core CPI (MoM)

Forecast:                                            Previous:

The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding  food  and  energy.  The  CPI  measures  price  change  from  the  perspective  of  the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CAD.

12:30 CAD   CPI (MoM)

Forecast:                                            Previous: 0.1%

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CAD.

12:30 CAD   CPI (YoY)

Forecast: 1.0%                                  Previous: 1.3%

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CAD.

13:30  USD    Core PPI (MoM)

Forecast: 0.1%                                              Previous: 0.1%

The Core Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the change in the selling price of goods and services sold by producers, excluding food and energy. The PPI measures price change from the perspective of the seller. When producers pay more for goods and services, they are more likely to pass the higher costs to the consumer, so PPI is thought to be a leading indicator of consumer inflation.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

13:00  MXN   Mexican Unemployment Rate

Forecast:                                                        Previous: 5.12%

The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the MXN, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the MXN.

 

Economic Events 19/09/2013

Holiday:         All Day                                   China – Mid-Autumn Festival

08:30  GBP    Core Retail Sales (MoM)

Forecast:                                Previous: 1.1%

Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. The Core number excludes Auto sales and Fuel, which tend to be very volatile. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.

08:30  GBP    Core Retail Sales (YoY)

Forecast: 3.1%                      Previous: 3.1%

Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. The Core number excludes Auto sales and Fuel, which tend to be very volatile. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.

08:30  GBP    Retail Sales (MoM)

Forecast: 0.4%                      Previous: 1.1%

Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.

08:30  GBP    Retail Sales (YoY)

Forecast: 3.3%                      Previous: 3.0%

Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.

10:00  GBP    CBI Industrial Trends Orders

Forecast: 2                 Previous:

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Industrial Trends Orders measures the economic expectations of the manufacturing executives in the U.K. It is a leading indicator of business conditions. A level above zero indicates order volume is expected to increase; a level below zero indicates expectations are for lower volumes. The reading is compiled from a survey of about 550 manufacturers. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.

12:30  CAD    Wholesale Sales (MoM)

Forecast: 1.0%                      Previous: 2.8%

Wholesale Sales measures the change in the total value of sales at the wholesale level. It is a leading indicator of consumer spending. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CAD.

12:30  USD    Continuing Jobless Claims

Forecast: 2,913K                   Previous: 2,871K

Continuing Jobless Claims measures the number of unemployed individuals who qualify for benefits under unemployment insurance. A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.

12:30  USD    Current Account

Forecast: 97.2B                    Previous: 106.1B

The Current Account index measures the difference in value between exported and imported goods, services and interest payments during the reported month. The goods portion is the same as the monthly Trade Balance figure. Because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation’s exports the data can have a sizable effect on the USD. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

12:30  USD    Initial Jobless Claims

Forecast: 330K                                  Previous: 292K

Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week. A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.

14:00  USD    Existing Home Sales

Forecast: 5.25M                                Previous: 5.39M

Existing Home Sales measures the change in the annualized number of existing residential buildings that were sold during the previous month. This report helps to gauge the strength of the U.S. housing market and is a key indicator of overall economic strength. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

14:00  USD    Existing Home Sales (MoM)

Forecast: 2.8%                                             Previous: 6.5%

Existing Home Sales measures the change in the number of existing (not new) residential buildings that were sold during the previous month. This report helps to gauge the strength of the U.S. housing market and is a key indicator of overall economic strength. A higher than expected number should be taken as positive to the USD, while a lower as expected number as negative.

14:00  USD    Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index

Forecast: 10.2                                    Previous: 9.3

The  Philadelphia  Federal  Reserve  Manufacturing  Index  rates  the  relative  level  of  general business conditions in Philadelphia. A level above zero on the index indicates improving conditions; below indicates worsening conditions. The data is compiled from a survey of about 250 manufacturers in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

 

Economic Events 18/09/2013

12:30   USD   Building Permits

Forecast: 0.950M                  Previous: 0.954M

Building Permits measures the change in the number of new building permits issued by the government. Building permits are a key indicator of demand in the housing market.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

12:30  USD    Building Permits (MoM)

Forecast:                                Previous: 3.9%

Building Permits is a report closely watched by economists and investors alike. Since all related factors associated with the construction of a building are important economic activities (for example, financing and employment), the building permit report can give a major hint as to the state of the economy in the near future. A higher than expected number should be taken as positive to the USD, while a lower as expected number as negative.

12:30   USD   Housing Starts

Forecast: 0.920M                              Previous: 0.896M

Housing starts measures the change in the annualized number of new residential buildings that began construction during the reported month. It is a leading indicator of strength in the housing sector.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

12:30  USD    Housing Starts (MoM)

Forecast:                                            Previous:

The German Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.

18:00  USD    FOMC Statement

Forecast:                                            Previous:

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement is the primary tool  the  panel  uses  to  communicate  with  investors  about  monetary  policy.  It  contains  the outcome of the vote on interest rates, discusses the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future votes.

A more dovish than expected statement could be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a more hawkish than expected statement could be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.

18:00  USD    Interest Rate Decision

Forecast: 0.25%                                Previous: 0.25%

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members vote on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the USD.

18:30  USD    Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks

Forecast:                                            Previous:

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke (February 2006 – January 2014) is to speak. As head of the Fed, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the U.S. dollar’s value than any other person. Traders closely watch his speeches as they are often used to drop hints regarding future monetary policy. His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend.

22:45  NZD   GDP (QoQ)

Forecast: 0.1%                      Previous: 0.3%

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the NZD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the NZD.

23:50  JPY     Trade Balance

Forecast: 1,101B                  Previous: 1,024B

The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the JPY, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the JPY anyways.

 

Economic Events 17/09/2013

 08:30  GBP   CPI (MoM)

 Forecast: 0.5%                         Previous:

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.

08:30  GBP    CPI (YoY)

Forecast: 2.7%                      Previous: 2.8%

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.

08:30  GBP    PPI Input (MoM)

Forecast: 0.2%                      Previous: 1.1%

Producer Price Index (PPI) Input measures the change in the price of goods and raw materials purchased by manufacturers. The index is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.

09:00  EUR    German ZEW Economic Sentiment

Forecast: 46.0            Previous: 42.0

The German Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) Economic Sentiment Index gauges the six-month economic outlook. A level above zero indicates optimism; below indicates pessimism. The reading is compiled from a survey of about 350 German institutional investors and analysts.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.

12:30  CAD    Manufacturing Sales (MoM)

Forecast:                                Previous: 0.50%

Manufacturing Sales measures the change in the overall value of sales made at the manufacturing level.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CAD.

12:30  USD    Core CPI (YoY)

Forecast: 1.8%                      Previous: 1.7%

The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding  food  and  energy.  The  CPI  measures  price  change  from  the  perspective  of  the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

12:30  USD    Core CPI (MoM)

Forecast: 0.2%                      Previous: 0.2%

The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding  food  and  energy.  The  CPI  measures  price  change  from  the  perspective  of  the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

12:30  USD    CPI (YoY)

Forecast: 1.6%                      Previous: 2.0%

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

12:30  USD    CPI (MoM)

Forecast: 0.2%                      Previous: 0.2%

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

13:00  USD    TIC Net Long-Term Transactions

Forecast:                                Previous: 66.9B

Treasury International Capital (TIC) Net Long-Term Transactions measures the difference in value between foreign long-term securities purchased by U.S. citizens and U.S. long-term securities purchased by foreign investors. Demand for domestic securities and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to purchase the nation’s securities.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

 22:45  NZD    Current Account

Forecast: 1.80B                    Previous: 0.66B

The Current Account index measures the difference in value between exported and imported goods, services and interest payments during the reported month. The goods portion is the same as the monthly Trade Balance figure. Because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation’s exports the data can have a sizable effect on the NZD.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the NZD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the NZD.

Disclaimer: The information in this analysis is collected from different sources and should serve for informative purposes only. The author shall not be held responsible for the validity of the presented information. No part of this analysis recommends the purchase or sale of a currency pair or any other financial instrument.

Economic Events 16/09/2013

Holiday: All Day Japan – Respect for the Aged Day
Holiday: All Day Mexico – Independence Day

 09:00  EUR Core CPI (YoY)

Forecast:                                 Previous: 1.1%

The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco. The data has a relatively mild impact because overall CPI is the European Central Bank’s mandated inflation target.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.

 09:00  EUR CPI (YoY)

Forecast: 1.3%                        Previous: 1.3%

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.

09:00  EUR CPI (MoM)

Forecast: 0.1%                                    Previous: 0.5%

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation. The impact on the currency may go both ways, a rise in CPI may lead to a rise in interest rates and a rise in local currency, on the other hand, during recession, a rise in CPI may lead to a deepened recession and therefore a fall in local currency.

12:30   CAD Foreign Securities Purchases

Forecast:                                             Previous: 15.41B

Foreign Securities Purchases measures the overall value of domestic stocks, bonds, and money- market assets purchased by foreign investors.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CAD.

12:30 USD  NY Empire State Manufacturing Index

Forecast: 9.20                         Previous: 8.24

The Empire State Manufacturing Index rates the relative level of general business conditions New York state. A level above 0.0 indicates improving conditions, below indicates worsening conditions. The reading is compiled from a survey of about 200 manufacturers in New York State.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

13:15 USD  Industrial Production (MoM)

Forecast: 0.4%                                    Previous:

Industrial Production measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

Disclaimer: The information in this analysis is collected from different sources and should serve for informative purposes only. The author shall not be held responsible for the validity of the presented information. No part of this analysis recommends the purchase or sale of a currency pair or any other financial instrument.

Economic Events 13/09/2013

05:30 JPY  Industrial Production (MoM)

 Forecast: 3.2%                                    Previous: 3.2%

 Industrial  Production  measures  the  change  in  the  total  inflation-adjusted  value  of  output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.

 A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the JPY, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the JPY.

08:15 CHF  PPI (MoM)

Forecast: 0.2%                                    Previous: 0.0%

Industrial  Production  measures  the  change  in  the  total  inflation-adjusted  value  of  output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the JPY, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the JPY.

10:00 EUR  Employment Change (QoQ)

Forecast: –0.2%                                   Previous: 0.5%

Employment Change measures the change in the number of people employed. Job creation is an important indicator of consumer spending.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.

10:00   EUR   Employment Change (YoY)

Forecast:                                            Previous: 1.0%

The Employment Change figure measure the change in employment in the whole Eurozone economy. A higher than expected number should be taken as positive to the EUR, while a lower than expected number as negative.

13:30  USD    Core PPI (MoM)

Forecast: 0.1%                                              Previous: 0.1%

The Core Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the change in the selling price of goods and services sold by producers, excluding food and energy. The PPI measures price change from the perspective of the seller. When producers pay more for goods and services, they are more likely to pass the higher costs to the consumer, so PPI is thought to be a leading indicator of consumer inflation.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

13:30  USD    PPI (YoY)

Forecast: 1.3%                                              Previous: 2.1%

The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

13:30  USD    PPI (MoM)

Forecast: 0.2%                                              Previous: 0.0%

The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

13:30  USD    Retail Sales (MoM)

Forecast: 0.4%                                              Previous: 0.0%

Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

14:55  USD    Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Forecast: 82.0                                    Previous: 82.1

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rates the relative level of current and future economic conditions. There are two versions of this data released two weeks apart, preliminary and revised. The preliminary data tends to have a greater impact. The reading is compiled from a survey of around 500 consumers.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

Disclaimer: The information in this analysis is collected from different sources and should serve for informative purposes only. The author shall not be held responsible for the validity of the presented information. No part of this analysis recommends the purchase or sale of a currency pair or any other financial instrument.

Economic Events 11/09/2013

00:00   KRW  South Korean Unemployment Rate

Forecast:                                Previous: 3.2%

The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the KRW, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the KRW.

 00:50  JPY     BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions

Forecast:                                Previous: 5.0

The Business Sentiment Index (BSI) Large Manufacturing Conditions Index measures business sentiment in manufacturing. The data is derived from a survey of large Japanese manufacturers. It is a key indicator of the strength of the Japanese economy, which relies heavily on the manufacturing industry. A level above zero indicates improving conditions; a level below indicates worsening conditions. This survey may help to predict the Bank of Japan’s Tankan Large Manufacturing Index which is generally released about a week later.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the JPY, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the JPY.

01:30   AUD  Westpac Consumer Sentiment

Forecast:                                            Previous: 3.50%

The Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index measures the change in the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. On the index, a level above 100.0 indicates optimism; below indicates pessimism. The data is compiled from a survey of about 1,200 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of past and future economic conditions.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD

07:00  EUR    German CPI (MoM)

Forecast:                                            Previous:

The German Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.

07:00  EUR    German CPI (YoY)

Forecast: 1.5%                                  Previous: 1.5%

The German Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.

09:30  GBP    Average Earnings Index +Bonus

Forecast: 1.2%                                  Previous: 2.1%

The Average Earnings Index measures change in the price businesses and the government pay for labor, including bonuses. The Average Earnings figure gives us a good indication of personal income growth during the given month.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.

09:30  GBP    Claimant Count Change

Forecast: 22.0K                                Previous: 29.2K

Claimant Count Change measures the change in the number of unemployed people in the U.K. during the reported month. A rising trend indicates weakness in the labor market, which has a trickle-down effect on consumer spending and economic growth.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP, while lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP.

22:00  NZD   Interest Rate Decision

Forecast:                                Previous: 2.50%

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) governor decides where to set the rate after consulting senior bank staff and external advisers. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the NZD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the NZD.

Disclaimer: The information in this analysis is collected from different sources and should serve for informative purposes only. The author shall not be held responsible for the validity of the presented information. No part of this analysis recommends the purchase or sale of a currency pair or any other financial instrument.

Economic Events 09/09/2013

Holiday:                        All Day                                   India – Ganesh Chaturthi

00:50  JPY Current Account n.s.a.)

Forecast: 0.49T                       Previous: 0.34T

The Current Account index measures the difference in value between exported and imported goods, services and interest payments during the reported month. The goods portion is the same as the monthly Trade Balance figure

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the JPY , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the JPY

00:50   JPY  GDP (QoQ)

Forecast: 0.9%                        Previous: 0.6%

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the JPY, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the JPY.

02:30   AUD Home Loans (MoM)

Forecast: 2.0%                                    Previous: 2.7%

Home Loans record the change in the number of new loans granted for owner-occupied homes. It is a leading indicator of demand in the housing market.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD.

02:30   CNY     Chinese CPI (MoM)

 Forecast: 0.4%                                    Previous: 0.1%

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CNY, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CNY.

02:30   CNY     Chinese CPI (YoY)

Forecast: 2.6%                                    Previous: 2.7%

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CNY, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CNY.

02:30   CNY     Chinese PPI (YoY)

Forecast: –1.8%                                   Previous: –2.3%

The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CNY, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CNY.

06:45   CHF Unemployment Rate n.s.a.

Forecast: 3.0%                        Previous: 3.0%

The unemployment rate represents the number of unemployed persons expressed as a percentage of the labour force. A lower than expected number should be taken as positive to the CHF, while a higher than expected number as negative.

06:45   CHF Unemployment Rat s.a.

Forecast: 3.2%                        Previous: 3.2%

The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CHF, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CHF.

08:15   CHF      Retail Sales (YoY)

Forecast:                                 Previous: 2.3%

Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CHF, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CHF.

13:30   CAD     Building Permits (MoM))

Forecast: 1.0%                                    Previous: 10.3%

Building Permits measures the change in the number of new building permits issued by the government. Building permits are a key indicator of demand in the housing market.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CAD.

Disclaimer: The information in this analysis is collected from different sources and should serve for informative purposes only. The author shall not be held responsible for the validity of the presented information. No part of this analysis recommends the purchase or sale of a currency pair or any other financial instrument.

Economic Events 06/09/2013

07:15 CHF Swiss CPI (MoM)

Forecast:                                Previous: 0.4%

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CHF, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CHF.

07:15 CHF Swiss CPI (YoY)

Forecast:                                Previous:

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation. The impact on the currency may go both ways, a rise in CPI may lead to a rise in interest rates and a rise in local currency, on the other hand, during recession, a rise in CPI may lead to a deepened recession and therefore a fall in local currency.

08:30 GBP Industrial Production (YoY)

Forecast: 1.7%                     Previous: 1.2%

Industrial  Production  measures  the  change  in  the  total  inflation-adjusted  value  of  output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.

08:30 GBP Industrial Production (MoM)

Forecast: 0.1%                                  Previous: 1.1%

Industrial  Production  measures  the  change  in  the  total  inflation-adjusted  value  of  output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.

08:30 GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM)

Forecast: 0.3%                      Previous: 1.9%

Manufacturing Production measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers. Manufacturing accounts for approximately 80% of overall Industrial Production.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.

08:30 GBP Manufacturing Production (YoY)

Forecast: 0.8%                                 Previous: 2.0%

The Manufacturing Production index measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by U.K.’s manufacturers. Manufacturing accounts for approximately 80% of overall Industrial Production. A rise in manufacturing production signify increasing economic growth therefore a higher than expected figure will be bullish for the GBP and a lower than expected should be bearish.

08:30 GBP Trade Balance

Forecast: 8.15B                    Previous: 8.08B

The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.

10:00 EUR German Industrial Production (MoM)

Forecast: 0.5%                     Previous: 2.4%

German Industrial Production measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.

12:00 BRL Brazilian CPI (YoY)

Forecast:                                Previous: 6.27%

The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month. The data tends to have a muted impact as there are several earlier indicators related to labor conditions in the euro zone.

13:00 BRL Brazilian GDP (YoY)

Forecast: 2.5%                      Previous: 1.9%

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the BRL, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the BRL.

12:30 CAD Employment Change

Forecast: 20.0K                     Previous: 39.4K

Employment Change measures the change in the number of people employed. Job creation is an important indicator of consumer spending.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CAD.

12:30 CAD Full Employment Change

Forecast:                                Previous: 18.3K

Full Employment Change is the change in employment of full-time employees. A higher than expected number should be taken as positive to the AUD, while a lower as expected number as negative.

12:30 CAD Unemployment Rate

Forecast: 7.0%                      Previous: 7.2%

The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CAD.

12:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)

Forecast: 0.2%                                  Previous: 0.1%

Average  Hourly  Earnings  measures  the  change  in  the  price  businesses  pay  for  labor,  not including the agricultural sector.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

12:30 USD Average Weekly Hours

Forecast: 34.5            Previous: 34.4

Average Weekly Hours (also known as Average Workweek) measures the average number of hours worked by employees on non-farm payrolls.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

12:30 USD Nonfarm Payrolls

Forecast: 180K                      Previous: 162K

Nonfarm Payrolls measures the change in the number of people employed during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. Job creation is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of economic activity.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

12:30 USD Private Nonfarm Payrolls

Forecast: 180K                      Previous: 161K

Private Nonfarm Payrolls measures the change in the number of total number of paid U.S. workers   of   any  business,   excluding   general   government   employees,   private  household employees, employees of nonprofit organizations that provide assistance to individuals and farm employees.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

12:30 USD Unemployment Rate

Forecast: 7.4%                                  Previous: 7.4%

The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.

14:00 CAD Ivey PMI

Forecast: 52.0            Previous: 48.4

The Ivey Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in Canada. A reading above 50 indicates expansion; a reading below 50 indicates contraction. The index is a joint project of the Purchasing Management Association of Canada and the Richard Ivey School of Business. Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CAD. 

Disclaimer: The information in this analysis is collected from different sources and should serve for informative purposes only. The author shall not be held responsible for the validity of the presented information. No part of this analysis recommends the purchase or sale of a currency pair or any other financial instrument.

Economic Events 04/09/2013

01:30 AUD GDP (QoQ)

Forecast: 0.6%                      Previous: 0.6%

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD.

01:30 AUD GDP (YoY)

Forecast: 2.5%                                  Previous: 2.5%

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health. A stronger than expected number should be taken as positive for the AUD and a lower as expected number as negative to the AUD.

08:28 GBP Services PMI

Forecast: 59.0                        Previous: 60.2

The Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; a reading below 50 indicates contraction. Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.

09:00 EUR GDP (QoQ)

 Forecast: 0.3%                      Previous: 0.3%

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.

09:00 EUR Retail Sales (MoM)

Forecast: 0.4%                      Previous: 0.5%

Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.

12:30 CAD Exports

Forecast: 40.00B                   Previous: 39.57B

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.

12:30 CAD Trade Balance

Forecast: 1.00B                    Previous: 0.47B

The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CAD.

12:30 USD Trade Balance

Forecast: –38.5B                    Previous: 34.2B

The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

14:00 CAD Interest Rate Decision

Forecast: 1.00%                    Previous: 1.00%

Bank of Canada (BOC) governing council members come to a consensus on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the CAD.

23:00 KRW South Korean GDP (QoQ)

Forecast:                                Previous: 1.1%

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the KRW, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the KRW.

23:00 KRW South Korean GDP (YoY)

Forecast:                                Previous: 2.3%

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the KRW, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the KRW.

Disclaimer: The information in this analysis is collected from different sources and should serve for informative purposes only. The author shall not be held responsible for the validity of the presented information. No part of this analysis recommends the purchase or sale of a currency pair or any other financial instrument.