A Brief Look at Alcoa 09/04/2013

Shares of the aluminum producer rose by 1.82% percent on Monday after the company reported its earnings for the first quarter of the year. Alcoa announced yesterday an increase in quarterly profits as performance in its alumina and primary metals segments improved. The revenue of the company fell a little bit. Forex on Alcoa climbed 0.15 points and closed the day at 8.39 after the announcement of the report.

In the first quarter of 2013 net profit of Alcoa rose to $149 million while the profit year earlier was $94 million. Revenue slipped 3 percent to $5.83 billion from $6.01 billion in 2012. Market analysts had expected the company to report earnings excluding items of 8 cents a share on $5.88 billion in revenue. The Alcoa’s CEO Klaus Kleinfeld said that he is optimistic that current year is going to be better than 2012 and he still project 7 percent demand growth in aluminum.

Economists expect earnings for Broad American S&P 500 companies to climb by 1.6 percent, which is down from 6.2 percent last quarter and lower than forecast of 4.3 percent in January. The quarter is expected to provide unusually high number of negative warnings. The revisions of 107 companies seems negative and compared with the positive revisions, it will be the worst pace in 12 years.

Technically speaking, Forex on Alcoa are in a medium term negative trend from the beginning of the current year. The last wave from yesterday seems as a correction of the actual trend and new decline of shares could be expected. A clear break below the lowest level of the year could extend the medium term bearish trend to the low of 2012 at 7.96. On upside the first resistance could be projected at 8.54 and break above it would lead the price of Forex on Alcoa to next resistance at 8.69. The last is crucial for the negative momentum and weekly close above it would return shares on upside.

Disclaimer:

The information in this analysis is collected from different sources and should serve for informative purposes only. The author shall not be held responsible for the validity of the presented information. No part of this analysis recommends the purchase or sale of a currency pair or any other financial instrument. 

A Brief Look at Nikkei 225 03/04/2013

Tokyo index rose 2.60% percent on Wednesday as investors in the county are expecting the Bank of Japan to announce aggressive monetary stimulus tomorrow. The Forex on Nikkei 225 closed the day at 12362.20 after a rally of 358.77 points.
Investors are waiting for the second day of the Bank of Japan meeting when it will release its decision about further monetary policy. The meeting is expected to be the most closely-watched in years as traders and investors have expectations for a radical monetary stimulus to end two decades of deflation. The benchmark index has climbed 40 percent and yen has tumbled more than 15 percent since the mid-November on speculations for aggressive monetary easing. Haruhiko Kuroda became the new governor of BOJ last month with a mandate from Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Yesterday the new chief told Japan’s lower house of parliament that the central bank will do “whatever it takes” to achieve its two percent inflation target. Market analysts expect that Kuroda will show its decision on Thursday, when the meeting ends and will include boosting asset purchases, buying longer-dated government bonds. In last years, the world’s largest economy, has suffered from persistent deflation and has slipped in and out of recession. In technical point of view, the Japanese major index is moving in a large bullish trend since November 2012. Currently the benchmark index is in a corrective pattern of the medium term positive momentum. Earlier in the year Forex on Nikkei 225 topped high at 12677 points which is still intact. A clear break and daily close would return bulls on the market for further highs. First resistance level on the way for the high could be projected around 12400 marks. On the downside first support level could be set at 12190 points and a break there would lead the price to the lowest level of March at 11784 points. In long term view only a clear price movement below 11000 psychological levels could change the outlook again to bearish. Until this level holds Forex on Nikkei 225 would continue to climb.

Disclaimer:
The information in this analysis is collected from different sources and should serve for informative purposes only. The author shall not be held responsible for the validity of the presented information. No part of this analysis recommends the purchase or sale of a currency pair or any other financial instrument.

A Brief Look At DAX 02/04/2013

German DAX is climbing in the first day of trade for the second quarter of the year. Forex on DAX added 100 points or 1.28% in the middle of the day after couple of economic events in Europe has been released.

Unemployment rate in the euro group was also released showing its highest level since the Union began in 1995. Percentage of unemployed work force is 12 and showed that 19.071 million were out of work in February. Change in the number of unemployed people during the previous month in Spain was released unexpectedly better than-estimates. Spanish Unemployment Change showed -5.0K while previous value was 59.4K and forecast was for 30.2K. This is fifth consecutive month with better than predicted change of unemployed people. On other side manufacturing data in Spain and Italy showed worse-than-expected numbers. Manufacturing PMI in Spain fell from 46.8 to 44.2 while in Italy the same economic indicator fell from 45.8 to 44.5.

In technical point of view Forex on DAX are moving in corrective pattern of the medium term positive trend. Trading is currently situated around first resistance for the day 7900. Clear break above it would lead the price to the next resistance level at 7940. forex on DAX need clear break above the highest level of the year to continue positive momentum. On downside break below the bottom of the previous week would extend the correction. Next support below it could be projected at 7640. Crucial for the medium term positive view is 7533 and daily close below it could be taken as a sign for reversal of the medium view.

Disclaimer:

The information in this analysis is collected from different sources and should serve for informative purposes only. The author shall not be held responsible for the validity of the presented information. No part of this analysis recommends the purchase or sale of a currency pair or any other financial instrument. 

A Brief Look at DAX 28/03/2013

German unemployment unexpectedly rose in March amid other troubles in euro area. Federal Labor Agency reported that the number of job seekers rose seasonally adjusted 13K while expectations were for 3K. The unemployment rate stood at 6.9% this month. The economic indicator didn’t affect Forex on DAX as index is around 10 points up after the announcement. Labor market in Germany still remains different from other euro area nations as while the country enjoys near a two-decade low unemployment, the rate climbed in other 17-nations to 11.9% in January, marking the highest percentage of unemployed people since 1995. One of the bad examples is Spain where current unemployment rate is 26% and economists in the country expect it to rise to 27.1 by the end of the current year. In other two of the biggest economies in Europe unemployment reached record highs in the last two months. French joblessness rate hit 16-year high in February while in Italy the rate hit its highest level since at least 1992 in January. In Greece unemployed force is at unbelievable level 26.4% in December 2012.
Markets will remain closed tomorrow of public holiday. The major index in Germany seems to close performance above 2 percent for the first quarter of the year while one-year return of investments of the asset is more than 11 percent. On Wednesday the German blue chip index is led by Bayer AG and Deutsche Bank AG with 1.57% and 1.13% respectively. In the other side of the list are shares of the carmaker Daimler AG with losses of -1.45% for now.
Technical view of Forex on DAX remains bearish for some corrective movement on Thursday. Negative trend from this week could be extended only if the price of the benchmark index falls below bottom from yesterday at 7748. Next support level on downside could be projected around 7675 followed by 7533 which is crucial for the medium term positive view. On upside Forex on DAX could find first resistance for the day around 7850 and price movement above it would lead the price to towards 7913. For continuation of the bullish momentum in long term the German need a clear break above sentiment 8000 mark

Disclaimer:
The information in this analysis is collected from different sources and should serve for informative purposes only. The author shall not be held responsible for the validity of the presented information. No part of this analysis recommends the purchase or sale of a currency pair or any other financial instrument.

A Brief Look at Nikkei 225 26/03/2013

The Japanese benchmark index finished below 12 500 on Tuesday after comments from Jeroen Dijsselbloem that the Cyprus bailout deal could be used as an example for future deals. Forex investors have expected the bailout deal from the beginning of last week. Finally, all investors in Popular bank of Cyprus with deposits of over 100 000 euros will lose some of their money as a secure measure of the needed 10 billion euro bailout.

On other hand, the new chief of Bank of Japan told parliament that he advocated the purchase of longer-term government bonds but this didn’t support benchmark index of the country. Haruhiko Kuroda also sings that he has two year to achieve the inflation in the country to the target of 2 percent. On top of the list of losers are Konica and Furukawa as both companies fell more than 5 percent today.

The announcement also didn’t effect on the yen as the currency is trading around closing levels from yesterday. On Monday, forex on USD/JPY hit its lowest price since three weeks. The pair slipped below 94 mark but reversed some of the negative move after that. Short term trend is negative and further decline could be seen as most of market participants are waiting for catalyzer to unlock new bullish potentials in medium term view.

Technically, the Japanese index is in medium term neutral trading after it topped the highest price of the year in the past week. In long term view the bullish trend is intact and there is no reason the outlook to be changed. Bulls need clear break above the high from past week to continue positive trend from the beginning of the year. Forex on the Nikkei 225 gained 24.49% this year as rumors for further monetary stimulus triggered an expansion of the index. In the short term view, first support could be projected at around 12334 followed by 12194. A break of the latter would only extend the correction but wouldn’t be taken as trend reversal signal. On the upside, first resistance is at around 12600 followed by 142683 and a break of this would confirm the bullish trend.

Disclaimer:

The information in this analysis is collected from different sources and should serve for informative purposes only. The author shall not be held responsible for the validity of the presented information. No part of this analysis recommends the purchase or sale of a currency pair or any other financial instrument. 

A Brief Look at Dow Jones 26/03/2013

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed in the red on Monday as Cyprus’ worries continue to weigh heavily on investors. The blue-chip index hit a new fresh intraday high for the ninth time. Forex on the Dow Jones climbed above the 14500 mark but after that dropped sharply. Finally, the index closed at 14447.75 on Monday, losing 64.28 points, or 0.44%.

Yesterday international lenders and the government in Cyprus reached a bailout deal hours before ECB stopped financing banks in the country. The deal was needed to secure the 10 billion euros bailout from European Central Bank, European Union and International Monetary Fund. Finally the deal is done and involves the winding down of the second largest bank in the island country and imposes a levy on the uninsured deposits over 100 000 euros in Cypriot banks. Fears of investors rose again after announcement of Eurogroup chief who said that Cyprus bailout deal could be used as example for future similar bank crisis in the euro zone.

On Tuesday forex traders are estimating the monthly Core Durable Goods Orders. The change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods, excluding transportation items is forecasted to fall from 2.3% to 0.7%. If this happens the percentage will become the lowest since September 2012. The economic event is scheduled for release at 12:30 London time. Later in the day the annualized number of new single-family homes that were sold during the previous month will be showed. Economists estimate the number to fall from 437K to 426K.

Technically speaking, Forex on Dow Jones are moving flat since the last week. The break from yesterday couldn’t be taken a sign of continuation of the bullish trend. The price needs clear break and daily close above the new high to confirm the positive formation. On downside first support could be projected around 14306 level followed by 14268. Positive trend could be destroyed only if we see price movement below 14 000 mark which is far away from the current level.

Disclaimer:

The information in this analysis is collected from different sources and should serve for informative purposes only. The author shall not be held responsible for the validity of the presented information. No part of this analysis recommends the purchase or sale of a currency pair or any other financial instrument. 

A Brief Look at FTSE 100 25/03/2013

The British major index has started the week higher after the last-minute deal in Cyprus. forex traders also began the trading session higher as the index opened 41 points up at 6433. Currently Forex on the FTSE are continuing to move higher towards the sentiment zone of 6400 points. Markets in Europe are positive on Monday as leaders in the euro zone got the final decision for Cyprus several hours before the European Central Bank was due to cut off funding to Cypriot banking system.

The deal involves all deposits over 100 000 euros in the second largest bank in the country. Depositors in the Popular Bank of Cyprus will support the bailout plan for the country without their approval. From these accounts the government will get the needed 5.8 billion euros to secure the deal for a new 10 billion euros. All deposits below 100 000 euros will be protected and the money will be transferred to the biggest bank in the island country, the Bank of Cyprus.

The British index is The British major index has started the week higher after the last-minute deal in Cyprus. forex traders also began the trading session higher as the index opened 41 points up at 6433. Currently Forex on the FTSE are continuing to move higher towards the sentiment zone of 6400 points. Markets in Europe are positive on Monday as leaders in the euro zone got the final decision for Cyprus several hours before the European Central Bank was due to cut off funding to Cypriot banking system.

The deal involves all deposits over 100 000 euros in the second largest bank in the country. Depositors in the Popular Bank of Cyprus will support the bailout plan for the country without their approval. From these accounts the government will get the needed 5.8 billion euros to secure the deal for a new 10 billion euros. All deposits below 100 000 euros will be protected and the money will be transferred to the biggest bank in the island country, the Bank of Cyprus.

The British index is led by Aberdeen Asset Management and Roll-Royce Holdings. Both companies are lighting in green and in the middle of the day are gaining respectively 5.57% and 2.46%. Shares of the Vodafone Group are following the top gainers with 2.45%. However, from the other side of the table are Eurasian Natural Recourses which shares are declining by 2.45% or 6.90 points. The currency in U.K. also didn’t perform today. The pound is down by 21 pips or 0.14% against the dollar today. The cable closed two consecutive positive weeks after its sharp decline to 1.4827. The pair is still moving above 1.52 marks but bullish trend from the past two weeks is corrective in his nature and further fall is expected by market analysts.

Technically speaking, Forex on FTSE 100 are trying to return positive momentum. The index hit the lowest price of 6302 which seems to be the major support of this week. On upside first intraday resistance count be set at 6418 and clear break above it could lead the price of forex on FTSE 100 to next at 6444. From the beginning of the year British index added new 9.19% and price movement above the highest level of this year could unlock new bullish potentials towards next psychological level at 6500 points.

Disclaimer:

The information in this analysis is collected from different sources and should serve for informative purposes only. The author shall not be held responsible for the validity of the presented information. No part of this analysis recommends the purchase or sale of a currency pair or any other financial instrument. 

 

A Brief Look At Dow Jones 21/03/2013

The Dow Jones rallied today and posted a new high for the current week. Forex on the blue-chip index increased by 55.91 points or 0.39% and closed the day at 14511.73. Investors traded higher on the Down and it hit a fresh intraday high for the eighth time this month at 14546.82. This year Forex on the Dow Jones have risen 11 percent so far. On Wednesday, the American major index was led by Coca-Cola and American Express which added respectively 1.37% and 1.34%. Both companies were followed by Disney with 1.12% on yesterday’s session.

Investors’ decisions were formed after the Federal Reserve minutes and press conference of chairman Ben Bernanke. The Central bank indicated that it will leave interest rates unchanged at a record low level and will continue buying $85 billion in debt each month until unemployment falls to 6.5%. The Fed also expects inflation to rise to 2.5% and the economy to grow by 2.3% and 2.8% this year. Forecasts are slightly lower compared with estimates in December. On the other hand, investors still have concerns over the bailout plan for Cyprus. Global markets expected the final decision of the island country. The crisis in the country came after it rejected approval for tax on deposits in banks. Parliament in Cyprus voted with 36 of its members against the strict measure. Finance minister Michael Sarris is in Moscow for talks with Russia, and speculations that Putin’s country could support Cyprus are rising.

On the economic front today are Unemployment Claims which are scheduled for 12:30 London time. Economists expect the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week to rise to 11 000. The number for the previous week was 332K. An hour-and-a-half after that would be announced the annualized number of residential buildings that were sold during the previous month, excluding new construction. Existing Home Sales are staying at 5.02M while the previous value was 4.92M. The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index also could trigger some movement as the economic event is expected at 14:00 GMT.

The technical outlook on Forex on the Dow Jones is strong and bullish. Range trading from this week is a correction of the general positive trend and a clear break above the new all-time-high could trigger a further rise. In the short term first support could be projected at 143 305 followed by 14 267. A break below the last could extend neutral trading towards 14 123. Only a price movement below the 13 745 mark could be taken as a sign of reversal of the positive trend. On the upside first intraday resistance is higher yesterday at 14546.82.

Disclaimer: The information in this analysis is collected from different sources and should serve for informative purposes only. The author shall not be held responsible for the validity of the presented information. No part of this analysis recommends the purchase or sale of a currency pair or any other financial instrument. 

A Brief Look at IBEX 35 20/03/2013

Forex on Spanish IBEX 35 are trading higher on Wednesday reversing the bearish trend from the beginning of the week. The index returned above 8400 points and currently is trading around 8466.20 gained 1.72% or 159.50 points. This is the first positive day for the European stocks in four days, as policy makers weighed bailout options for Cyprus.
Euro also is gaining today after a rebound from the bottom of yesterday. The European currency added 56 pips or 0.42% against the dollar posting the first positive day for the currency this week. After the announcement in Saturday, the single currency opened 140 pips down against the dollar and returned again below the 1.30 mark. Of course this affects bad on the all markets in Europe respectively on the Spanish major index.
Cyprus concerns stopped the positive impulse of the Spanish index as from the end of the previous month IBEX 35 posted new highs every week. Today investors are expecting that Russia will support the island country and fears of eventual collapse of it bank system, wouldn’t continue. Finance minister, Michel Sarris is in Moscow to discuss eventual conditions for a loan from Russia.
Technically speaking, the decline from this week is still corrective in its nature and only break below the major support at 8260 could change investors’ sentiment. Until this level holds bulls will stay stronger than bears on the market and further rises would be expected. Break below 8260 would extend the fall towards psychological 8000 level and would return negative trend from January. On upside price of Forex on IBEX 35 needs clear break above 8615 to confirm the bullish trend. First intraday resistance towards this target is 8515 followed by 8550. Price movement through the highest level of month would clear the way to the top of the year at 8752.

Disclaimer:
The information in this analysis is collected from different sources and should serve for informative purposes only. The author shall not be held responsible for the validity of the presented information. No part of this analysis recommends the purchase or sale of a currency pair or any other financial instrument

A Brief Look at FTSE 100 18/03/2013

Forex on FTSE 100 are trading lower today as the fears over Cyprus’ bailout weigh heavily on investors’ decisions. The major index in Britain opened 86 points down this morning breaking the support at 6535.

Last week Forex on FTSE 100 topped their new highest level of 6535. The previous high was also made last week and it hit the highest price of December 2007. Sharp decline fromis morning of the index price could continue as traders concerns over the bank stability of the Cyprus region will weigh on markets.

The biggest losers of the index for today are Eurasian Natural Resources and Barclays which are falling respectively 7.73% and 5.12%. On the other side of the river are Mark & Spencer Group and Croda International with gains of 7.73% and 1.40% in the middle of the trading day in London.

On other hand, a lot of important news for the U.K. economy is estimated this week. The beginning is with the annual inflation report that is waiting tomorrow at 9:30 GMT. Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers are forecasted to rise from 2.7% to 2.8%. The Producer Price Index also is estimated higher than previous on Tuesday. Monthly PPI for January is 1.3% while the percentage for the previous is predicted to become 1.6. On Wednesday, forex traders should look at the Unemployment rate with forecast at the same level like the previous 7.8%.There is also important news on Thursday when monthly Retail Sales report would be released at 9:30 London time. Analysts await economic indicator to move above positive zone for the first time since five months.

After the negative gap opening today, price of the index returned half of the loss. Forex on FTSE 100 reversed again below 6500 mark and currently are trading around 6445. General positive momentum is still intact and only break below 6242 could be taken as a sign for larger decline. Until this level holds daily outlook will stay bullish. On upside, break of the highest level of this year would lead the price towards 6614 level first and all-time high at 6750 after that.

Disclaimer:

The information in this analysis is collected from different sources and should serve for informative purposes only. The author shall not be held responsible for the validity of the presented information. No part of this analysis recommends the purchase or sale of a currency pair or any other financial instrument.